多工序动态反馈作用下的矿山爆破效率影响因素研究

    Study on the influencing factors of mine blasting efficiency under multi-process dynamic feedback effects

    • 摘要: 矿山爆破效率是影响矿山生产整体效益与作业安全性的关键因素,其工序间存在复杂动态关系。目前矿山企业常用的模糊评价法、层次分析法与BP神经网络等方法难以捕捉系统的动态反馈机制,且缺少对爆破全周期系统性管控及多元技术协同分析。因此,将管理学系统动力学建模方法应用于矿山领域,模型将定性与定量相结合,适用于分析复杂网络关系。构建矿山爆破效率系统动力学模型,从安全因素、机器设备、物料管理、操作方法四个方面综合分析影响矿山爆破效率系统的70个影响因子,依托某矿山2014—2024年爆破工序历史数据验证模型有效性,利用Vensim软件对不同工序参数调整下的爆破效率进行预测。研究结果表明:基准情景下,矿山爆破效率呈波动上升趋势;单因素情景下,安全子系统对爆破效率影响最为显著,其中,安全培训频率的波动影响较为突出,安全培训频率提高10%时,矿山爆破效率较基准情景提升3.31%,且逐年增加;多因素综合情景下,安全子系统与机器设备子系统的协同作用对爆破效率提升效果显著,当安全培训频率与信息化投入比例均提高10%时,矿山爆破效率较基准情景提升6.39%,且逐年增加。研究明晰了工序间相互作用关系及其对矿山爆破效率的影响,验证了矿山爆破效率系统动力学模型在矿山领域的适用性。

       

      Abstract: Mine blasting efficiency is a key factor affecting the overall benefits and operational safety of mine production, and complex dynamic relationships exist among its sub-processes. At present, methods commonly used in mining enterprises, such as fuzzy evaluation, analytic hierarchy process, and BP neural network, struggle to capture the dynamic feedback mechanism of the system and lack systematic control over the entire blasting cycle as well as analysis of the collaborative effects of multiple technologies. Therefore, the system dynamics modeling method in management science is applied to the mining field. This model integrates qualitative and quantitative analyses and is suitable for complex network relationships. A system dynamics model for mine blasting efficiency is constructed. A comprehensive analysis is conducted on 70 influencing factors of the mine blasting efficiency system from four dimensions: safety factors, machinery and equipment, material management, and operating methods. The validity of the model is verified based on historical data of blasting processes in a specific mine from 2014 to 2024, and Vensim software is used to predict blasting efficiency under adjustments of different process parameters. The results show that: under the baseline scenario, mine blasting efficiency presents a fluctuating upward trend; in the single-factor scenario, the safety subsystem exerts the most significant impact on blasting efficiency, among which the fluctuation of safety training frequency is particularly prominent—when the safety training frequency is increased by 10%, mine blasting efficiency is 3.31% higher than that in the baseline scenario and increases year by year; in the comprehensive multi-factor scenario, the synergistic effect between the safety subsystem and the machinery and equipment subsystem significantly promotes blasting efficiency. When both the safety training frequency and the ratio of informatization investment are increased by 10%, mine blasting efficiency is 6.39% higher than that in the baseline scenario and continues to increase year by year. This study clarifies the interaction relationships among processes and their impacts on mine blasting efficiency, and verifies the applicability of the system dynamics model for mine blasting efficiency in the mining field.

       

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