Abstract: Under the background of the dual carbon goal and the global reshaping of the energy landscape, the stability of the cross-border coal supply chain has become a key core issue for China-Central Asia energy cooperation and regional economic synergy development. Based on the resource endowment theory and the perspective of institutional synergy, this paper constructs a four-dimensional evaluation system of “resource endowment - production capacity - logistics infrastructure - economic environment”. It selects the panel data of the five Central Asian countries from 2020 to 2024, and uses the entropy weight TOPSIS model to calculate the stability of the coal supply chain. Moreover, by analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics, it explores the development trend of the coal supply chain. The research shows that the stability of the Central Asian coal supply chain exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity with “strong in the north and weak in the south”. Kazakhstan, relying on high-quality resources and complete infrastructure, maintains a leading position. The three southern Central Asian countries are constrained by insufficient production capacity and lagging infrastructure, and the stability of the supply chain is relatively weak. Resource reserves and coal production capacity are core driving indicators, accounting for more than one-third of the weight, and have a decisive role in regional coal trade scale and energy security. The policy synergy of the Belt and Road Initiative and infrastructure connectivity can positively regulate supply chain resilience and effectively enhance regional trade dependence and the level of regional economic synergy in industrial association. Based on this, differentiated cooperation plans should deepen the all-chain cooperation with Kazakhstan to help southern countries such as Uzbekistan upgrade their production capacity and logistics system; rely on digital twins and clean coal technology to build a green and intelligent supply chain, and establish a regular energy governance dialogue mechanism. The research results can provide quantitative references and strategic support for strengthening the energy security barrier of China-Central Asia, promoting regional industrial integration and green synergy development.