基于TCN-Transformer-MHSA模型的瓦斯涌出量预测研究

    Research on gas emission prediction based on the TCN-Transformer-MHSA model

    • 摘要: 瓦斯涌出量是煤矿日常瓦斯防治的关键基础参数,其准确预测对煤矿安全生产至关重要。本文提出一种结合时序卷积网络(TCN)和Transformer的瓦斯涌出量预测模型,选取煤层埋深、煤层厚度、煤层原始瓦斯含量等六个参数作为瓦斯涌出量预测的特征量,构建了瓦斯涌出量预测数据集,模型的训练和测试结果表明:TCN-Transformer-MHSA预测模型的平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)、决定系数(R2)在训练集上分别为0.073 3、0.270 7、0.993 7,在测试集上分别为1.321 8、1.149 7、0.897 1,模型预测精度良好;且相比于TCN、LSTM和LSTM-Transformer-MHSA预测模型的决定系数R2:0.793 9、0.756 9和0.873 1,TCN-Transformer-MHSA预测模型预测精度最高。对比LSTM预测模型,TCN预测模型的MAERMSE分别下降70.97%、46.12%,R2提升17.00%,TCN网络更容易提取瓦斯涌出量的时序特征;而融合Transformer-MHSA后,相比于单一TCN模型,MAERMSE进一步降低50.78%、29.85%,R2提升3.02%。此外,SHAP全局特征分析表明,原始瓦斯含量和煤层埋深等因素对模型预测结果影响最为显著。研究结果表明,所提模型可有效提高瓦斯涌出量预测精度与稳定性,为煤矿瓦斯防治提供可靠的数据支撑与理论依据。

       

      Abstract: Gas emission is a critical parameter for daily gas prevention in coal mines, and its accurate prediction is vital for ensuring safe coal mine operations. In this study, a hybrid gas emission prediction model based on Temporal Convolutional Network(TCN) and Transformer model(TCN-Transformer-MHSA) is proposed. A dataset is established using six features, including coal seam burial depth, coal seam thickness, and initial gas content, among others. The training and testing results show that the proposed TCN-Transformer-MHSA model achieves favorable predictive performance, with mean absolute error(MAE), root mean squared error(RMSE), and coefficient of determination(R2) of 0.073 3, 0.270 7, 0.993 7(training set) and 1.321 8, 1.149 7, 0.897 1(test set), respectively. Compared with other models including TCN, LSTM, and LSTM-Transformer-MHSA(with R2 values of 0.793 9, 0.756 9, and 0.873 1, respectively), the TCN-Transformer-MHSA model demonstrates the highest prediction accuracy. Furthermore, the TCN model reduces MAE and RMSE by 70.97% and 46.12%, respectively, and improves R2 by 17.00% compared to the LSTM model, indicating TCN’s superior capability in extracting temporal features. By integrating the Transformer-MHSA mechanism, the proposed model further reduces MAE and RMSE by 50.78% and 29.85%, respectively, and improves R2 by 3.02% compared to the standalone TCN model. In addition, global SHAP feature analysis reveals that initial gas content, and burial depth are the most influential factors affecting the prediction results. Overall, the proposed model significantly improves the accuracy and stability of gas emission predictions, providing reliable theoretical guidance and data support for coal mine gas prevention and control.

       

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