人工智能产业链对矿产资源格局的影响分析

    Analysis of the impact of artificial intelligence industry chain on mineral resource landscape

    • 摘要: 生成式人工智能问世以来,人工智能(AI)产业经历了从算法突破到基础设施大规模部署的跃迁式发展,AI产业链正以叠加融合电动化、绿色化、轻量化的方式,引发全球关键矿产需求格局的新一轮变革。系统梳理AI产业链对全球矿产资源格局的影响,对于合理制定相关资源产业发展、保障相关矿产供给安全具有重要意义。本文构建了覆盖芯片制造层、AI基础设施层、智能终端层和能源层的AI产业链四层分析框架,系统分析了各环节所需矿产的种类、结构与规模。研究结果表明:①智能化的发展以电动化为前提,AI产业是全社会电动化进程的强有力推动力;②AI产业链所需矿产与新能源矿产高度重合,但直接消费规模总体小于后者,相当于在以往电动化基础上再叠加20%~30%的需求增量;③镓、锗、铟等智能化金属单台用量小,但精度要求高,数以亿台计的智能设备使其需求潜力可观;④人形机器人对稀土需求拉动可能远超预期;⑤氦气和高纯石英是AI产业链中极易被“卡脖子”的关键矿产,全球供给高度集中,其中,氦气集中于美国和卡塔尔,高纯石英集中于美国。全球AI产业链相关的关键矿产需求竞争压力愈来愈大,各国均需建立基于本土安全的AI产业链体系,从加大资源勘查和综合评价、加强全量关键金属的综合利用、超前布局循环利用产业体系、加强境外资源综合布局、创新技术提高资源利用效率有效压减需求等供需两端综合入手,保障AI产业链所需矿产稳定的供给。

       

      Abstract: Since the advent of generative artificial intelligence, the AI industry has undergone a leapfrog evolution from algorithmic breakthroughs to large-scale infrastructure deployment. By integrating electrification, greenization, and lightweighting in a synergistic manner, the AI industry chain is reshaping the global landscape of critical mineral demand. Systematically assessing this impact is essential for formulating rational resource development policies and ensuring supply security. This paper establishes a four-layer analytical framework for the AI industry chain, covering chip manufacturing, AI infrastructure, intelligent terminals, and energy supply, and systematically analyzes the types, structures, and scales of minerals required at each layer. The main findings are as follows: ① the development of intelligence is predicated on electrification, and the AI industry acts as a powerful driver for society-wide electrification. ② The minerals required by the AI chain overlap heavily with those used in new energy technologies, but the direct consumption scale is generally smaller—equivalent to an additional 20%-30% demand on top of the existing electrification baseline. ③ Intelligent metals such as gallium, germanium, and indium have low per-unit consumption but demand high precision; given the billions of smart devices in use, their overall demand potential is considerable. ④ Humanoid robots are likely to drive rare earth demand far beyond current expectations. ⑤ Helium and high-purity quartz are critical minerals that face pronounced stranglehold risks, with highly concentrated global supply——helium predominantly in the United States and Qatar, and high-purity quartz almost exclusively in the United States. As competition for critical minerals along the global AI supply chain intensifies, all countries need to establish AI industrial systems grounded in domestic security. A comprehensive supply-and-demand strategy should be adopted, including: intensifying resource exploration and comprehensive assessment; enhancing the integrated utilization of all critical metals; proactively building a circular economy system; reinforcing a diversified overseas resource portfolio; and advancing technological innovations to improve resource efficiency and effectively curb demand growth, thereby ensuring a stable supply of minerals essential to the AI industry chain.

       

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