页岩气勘探开发风险分析
投稿时间:2018-04-26  修订日期:2019-04-04  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
林腊梅 中国石油大学华东 linlameiupc@upc.edu.cn 
张金川 中国地质大学  
韩双彪 中国矿业大学  
许洋 中国石油大学华东  
基金项目:山东省自然科学基金项目(编号:ZR2014DL004);页岩气资源战略评价重点实验室开放基金项目(编号: 20171101);中央高校基本科研业务费专项-中国石油大学(华东)自主创新项目(编号:18CX02055A)
中文摘要:我国页岩气发展已取得重要进展,同时开发利用过程中的各种风险也逐渐引起人们的重视。论文针对我国页岩气资源特点,结合当前勘探开发现状,分析了当前可能存在的地质风险、技术风险、经济风险和环境风险。地质风险方面,通过开展平行试验,重点讨论了地质参数的不确定性,提出了用概率表征法来描述和分析地质不确定性。富集规律不明晰的现状和采收率低的资源特点进一步加大了地质风险。技术风险方面,分析认为,虽然我国页岩气自主核心技术水平能力不断提升,但技术的推广应用存在困难,基础设施的不完善加大了技术风险。经济风险主要来自于持续大量的投资和天然气价格波动。环境风险方面,结合国外页岩气工业发展历程,讨论了环境问题的发展趋势。论文依据我国南、北方人文、地理及地质条件的差异,初步探讨了页岩气开发对策。分析认为,在页岩气勘探开发过程中给,需进一步加强对各类风险的认识、描述及分析,开展全面的风险评价工作,以帮助决策者做出更为科学的判断。
中文关键词:页岩气  自然资源  生态环境  风险评价
 
Risk analysis of shale gas exploration and development
Abstract:Important progress has been made in the development of shale gas in China. At the same time, various risks in the process of development and utilization have gradually attracted people's attention. In view of the characteristics of shale gas resources in China and the current situation of exploration and development, the geological risks, technical risks, economic risks and environmental risks are analyzed. In the aspect of geological risk, by carrying out parallel experiments, the uncertainty of geological parameters is discussed, and the probability method is proposed to describe and analyze the geological uncertainty. The unclear status of enrichment laws and low resource recovery characteristics further increase the geological risk. In the aspect of technical risk, the analysis indicates that although the capability of core technology of shale gas in China is constantly improving, there are difficulties in the popularization and application of technology. Economic risks are mainly caused by sustained large investment and natural gas price fluctuations. In the aspect of environmental risk, combined with the development history of shale gas industry abroad, the development trend of environmental problems is discussed. Based on the differences of the humanities, geography and geological conditions in South and North China, the Countermeasures for shale gas development are preliminarily discussed. It is necessary to further strengthen the understanding, description and analysis of all kinds of risks, and carry out risk assessment to help decision-makers make more scientific judgment
keywords:Shale gas  natural resources  ecological environment  Risk analysis
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