Analysis of the impact of artificial intelligence industry chain on mineral resource landscape

Since the advent of generative artificial intelligence, the AI industry has undergone a leapfrog evolution from algorithmic breakthroughs to large-scale infrastructure deployment. By integrating electrification, greenization, and lightweighting in a synergistic manner, the AI industry chain is reshaping the global landscape of critical mineral demand. Systematically assessing this impact is essential for formulating rational resource development policies and ensuring supply security. This paper establishes a four-layer analytical framework for the AI industry chain, covering chip manufacturing, AI infrastructure, intelligent terminals, and energy supply, and systematically analyzes the types, structures, and scales of minerals required at each layer. The main findings are as follows: ① the development of intelligence is predicated on electrification, and the AI industry acts as a powerful driver for society-wide electrification. ② The minerals required by the AI chain overlap heavily with those used in new energy technologies, but the direct consumption scale is generally smaller—equivalent to an additional 20%-30% demand on top of the existing electrification baseline. ③ Intelligent metals such as gallium, germanium, and indium have low per-unit consumption but demand high precision; given the billions of smart devices in use, their overall demand potential is considerable. ④ Humanoid robots are likely to drive rare earth demand far beyond current expectations. ⑤ Helium and high-purity quartz are critical minerals that face pronounced stranglehold risks, with highly concentrated global supply——helium predominantly in the United States and Qatar, and high-purity quartz almost exclusively in the United States. As competition for critical minerals along the global AI supply chain intensifies, all countries need to establish AI industrial systems grounded in domestic security. A comprehensive supply-and-demand strategy should be adopted, including: intensifying resource exploration and comprehensive assessment; enhancing the integrated utilization of all critical metals; proactively building a circular economy system; reinforcing a diversified overseas resource portfolio; and advancing technological innovations to improve resource efficiency and effectively curb demand growth, thereby ensuring a stable supply of minerals essential to the AI industry chain.