1998~2015年中国矿产资源消耗与经济增长的脱钩分析

    Decoupling analysis of China’s mineral resources consumption and economic growth in 1998~2015

    • 摘要: 本文基于1998~2015年矿产资源消耗量引入资源脱钩指数,测算并分析中国矿产资源消耗与经济增长的关系状况和时间演变规律。研究结果表明:中国11种重要矿产资源消耗总量2014年达到峰值;消耗结构优化成效显著,天然气、金属和非金属比重不断提升;矿产资源消耗与经济增长在2003年、2004年、2005年、2009年、2011年这五年处于未脱钩,2015年处于绝对脱钩,其他12年处于相对脱钩,总体资源利用效率相对较高,但经济发展仍未摆脱对矿产资源的依赖;1998~2015年脱钩指数可以划分为快速下降、快速上升和平稳上升三个阶段,中国经济增长和矿产资源消耗实现了由未脱钩向相对脱钩的转变,初步呈现绝对脱钩态势。

       

      Abstract: Based on the mineral resources consumption from 1998 to 2015, the paper estimates the decoupling index of mineral resources consumption and economic growth in China, and analyzes quantitatively the decoupling condition and time evolution rule of them.Research indicates:11 major mineral resources consumption increased first and then decreased in China, reaching its peak in 2014; the optimization effect of consumption structure is remarkable, the proportion of natural gas, metal and nonmetal increased substantially; mineral resources consumption and economic growth is not decoupled in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2011, absolute decoupling in 2015, the other 12 years in the relative decoupling, and the overall efficiency of resource use is relatively high, but the economic development has not been out of dependence on mineral resources; the decoupling index can be divided into three stages, rapid decline, rapid increase and steady rise from 1998 to 2015, and economic growth and consumption of mineral resources have been changed from non-decoupling to relative decoupling, present initially the development trend of absolute decoupling.

       

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