“一带一路”沿线国家油气资源投资风险评价

    Risk evaluation of the oil and gas resources investment in countries along the Belt and Road

    • 摘要: “一带一路”倡议为中国海外油气投资带来了诸多机遇,但风险因素依然存在。本文对“一带一路”倡议下海外油气资源投资风险进行了识别,建立了资源风险、政治与法律风险、经济风险、自然环境风险4个二级指标,构建了海外油气资源投资风险指标体系,建立了AHP-Fuzzy综合模型,对阿塞拜疆等16个“一带一路”沿线国家油气资源投资风险进行了实证评价。结果显示:在阿塞拜疆、伊朗、阿曼、埃及、印度尼西亚、越南、哈萨克斯坦、泰国进行油气投资属于高风险等级;在沙特阿拉伯、马来西亚、印度进行油气投资属于中等风险;在俄罗斯、卡塔尔、科威特进行油气投资属于较低风险;在阿联酋、罗马尼亚进行油气投资属于低风险。提出对策建议:针对不同风险等级的国家,因地施策;推进“一带一路”能源合作机制建立;完善企业海外投资相关的法律法规。

       

      Abstract: With the smooth implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, overseas oil and gas investment of China ushers are in a series of opportunities, but still faces many risks.This paper identifies the risks of overseas oil and gas investment under the Belt and Road Initiative.From the resource risk, political and legal risk, economic risk and environmental risk, the paper also builds risk evaluation index system of overseas oil and gas investment.Then the AHP-Fuzzy model is established to evaluate oil and gas investment risk of 16 countries along the Belt and Road.The results show that oil and gas investment in Azerbaijan, Iran, Oman, Indonesia, Egypt, Vietnam, Kazakhstan and Thailand belong to the high risk level; oil and gas investments in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and India belong to the medium risk level; oil and gas investment in Russia, Qatar and Kuwait are lower risk; oil and gas investment in the UAE and Romania are low risk.Finally, this paper puts forward the following suggestions:taking different countermeasures according to different risk level of each country; promoting the establishment of “the Belt and Road” energy cooperation mechanism; perfecting the laws and regulations related to the overseas investment of enterprises.

       

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