全球能源供需新格局研究

    Research on new pattern of global energy supply and demand

    • 摘要: 能源是经济社会发展的重要物质基础。分析研判未来全球能源供需格局变化,对国家制定能源战略、规划具有重要意义。本文通过预测全球能源需求趋势,分析能源消费品种以及全球能源市场格局变化,研判了未来全球能源供需新格局:一是中国、印度、东盟等发展中国家将拉动全球能源需求增长,但消费增速逐渐趋缓;二是气候变化促使全球能源消费结构加速调整,煤炭占比将持续下降,非化石能源占比将持续增加,未来煤炭、石油、天然气以及非化石能源消费占比将呈“四分天下”格局;三是美国有望于2020年基本实现能源独立,成为继中东、俄罗斯以外的重要油气供应中心,将重塑全球能源市场格局。

       

      Abstract: Energy is an important material foundation for economic and social development.By analyzing and judging the changes of global energy supply and demand pattern in the future is of great significance for the country to formulate energy strategies and plans.By forecasting global energy demand trends, analyzing global energy consumption structure and the changes of global energy market pattern, this paper predicts the new pattern of global energy supply and demand in the future.Firstly, the developing countries such as China, India and ASEAN will push up global energy demand, but consumption growth rate will slow down.Secondly, climate change promptes energy consumption to turn into more environmentally friendly way which means the proportion of nuclear power、hydro electric、renewable and other non-fossil energy will continue to increase.Thirdly, the United States is expected to basically achieve energy independence in 2020, becoming an important oil and gas supply center besides the Middle East and Russia, and will reshape the global energy market structure.

       

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