2020年国内外油气资源形势分析及展望

    Analysis and outlook of domestic and international oil & gas resources situation in 2020

    • 摘要: 2020年,新冠肺炎疫情在全球肆虐,全球经济遭遇了自2008年金融危机以来最大的冲击,油气需求锐减,国际油价中低位大幅震荡,油气上游投资大幅下降。我国抗击新冠肺炎疫情斗争取得重大战略成果,经济稳定恢复,成为全球唯一实现经济正增长的主要经济体。尽管受疫情、低油价等因素影响,但我国油气勘查开采形势总体稳中向好,石油产量稳步增长,天然气产量增长较快,页岩气产量大幅增长。 勘查投资稳中有降,开采投资大幅下降。 油气找矿取得多项重要成果。 预计2021年国际油价仍将在中低位运行,布伦特(Brent)原油现货平均价格为46~50美元/桶。 2021年石油产量约1.96亿t,天然气(含页岩气和煤层气)产量约2 000亿m3,继续保持较快增长态势。

       

      Abstract: 2020 is an extraordinary year, the COVID-19 epidemic is raging around the world, the global economy has suffered the biggest impact since the 2008 financial crisis.The demand and the upstream investment of oil and gas have fallen sharply, and the international oil prices fluctuated at a low-to-mid level.China has achieved major strategic results in the fight against the virus, leading to the stable recovery of its economy, and becoming the only major economy in the world that has achieved positive growth.Despite the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, low oil prices and other factors, the overall situation of oil and gas exploration and production in China is stable and improving.Oil production has grown steadily, natural gas production has grown rapidly, and shale gas production has increased substantially.The investment in exploration has dropped steadily, and investment in mining has fallen sharply.Many important achievements have been made in oil and gas prospecting.It is expected that in 2021, international oil prices will continue to operate at a low-to-mid level, and the average spot price of Brent crude oil will be from 46 to 50 per barrel.In 2021, the estimated production of oil will be about 195 million tons, and that of natural gas (including shale gas and coalbed methane) will be about 200 billion m3, which will continue to maintain rapid growth.

       

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