2021—2035年世界锗矿产品供需形势分析

    Analysis of the global germanium resource supply and demand situation from 2021 to 2035

    • 摘要: 锗矿作为一种重要的战略性矿产,在新兴产业和国防军工领域具有应用潜力。我国随着环境保护力度的加大和产业结构的调整,对锗资源开采和深加工能力提出新要求,研究锗资源供需形势是制定相关产业发展政策和规划的基础。本文以全球长周期数据为基础,利用部门消费法定量预测未来25年锗需求量,并在环境保护的制约下分析全球供需形势。研究认为全球锗资源需求将快速增加,2025年、2030年和2035年的需求量预计分别为198.5 t、258.1 t和308.6 t;受环保制约,全球锗供应增长潜力有限,2025年开始供不应求现象逐步凸显;全球范围内锗金属二次回收量将进一步增加,预计到2035年全球45%的锗来自二次回收。基于以上研究,本文认为当前锗产业正处于新一轮起飞点,我国为实现锗资源大国向资源强国的转变,有必要在加强行业联合、鼓励研发投入、扶持二次回收等方面出台支持政策。

       

      Abstract: As an important strategic mineral, germanium has an important application potential in emerging industries and national defense and military industries.With the increase in environmental protection and the adjustment of the industrial structure in my country, new requirements have been put forward for the extraction and deep processing of germanium resources.Studying the supply and demand situation of germanium resources is the basis for formulating relevant industrial development policies and plans.Based on global long-term data, this article uses the sectoral consumption method to quantitatively predict germanium demand in the next 25 years and analyzes the global supply and demand situation under the constraints of environmental protection.The authors think that the global demand for germanium resources will increase rapidly, and the demand in 2025, 2030 and 2035 is expected to be 198.5 tons, 258.1 tons and 308.6 tons, respectively.Restricted by environmental protection, the growth potential of global germanium supply is limited, and the shortage of supply will gradually become prominent from 2025.Globally, secondary recycling will further increase.It is estimated that 45% of global germanium will come from secondary recycling by 2035.Based on the above research, the authors believes that our country completes the transformation from a large germanium resource country to a resource-powered country, it is necessary for my country to introduce supporting policies in strengthening industry alliances, encouraging R&D investment, and supporting secondary recycling.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回