2021—2035年全球硫酸镍供需形势分析

    Analysis of global supply and demand situation of nickel sulfate from 2021 to 2035

    • 摘要: 硫酸镍主要用于生产新能源汽车动力电池,是镍产业链上的关键一环。近年来,全球硫酸镍供需格局发生重大变化,亟需系统梳理全球硫酸镍消费状况,分析硫酸镍各下游产业发展趋势,预测未来需求,研判全球硫酸镍供应态势,支撑新能源汽车产业可持续发展。经过分析研究,本文根据不同类型动力电池发展趋势,设置了硫酸镍需求的三种可能情景:①参考情景下,全球硫酸镍需求将由64万t增长至367万t,较当前增长近473%;②高镍情景下,全球硫酸镍需求将由64万t增长至579万t,较当前增长近804%;③低镍情景下,全球硫酸镍需求将由64万t增长至212万t,较当前增长231%。供应方面,本文认为由于生产技术突破,全球硫酸镍供应格局将发生重大变化:硫酸镍生产原料将由当前的以硫化镍矿为主转变为以红土镍矿为主的格局,冶炼方法主要为湿法冶炼和火法冶炼两种,硫酸镍原材料供应由以加拿大、俄罗斯、澳大利亚为主转为以印度尼西亚、菲律宾等红土镍矿丰富的国家为主的格局。基于全球硫酸镍格局变化,建议国内相关企业加速开展海外红土型镍矿-硫酸镍生产线投资,抢占市场先机。

       

      Abstract: Nickel sulfate is mainly used to produce power batteries for new energy vehicles and is a core link leading the development of the global nickel industry.In recent years, the global nickel sulfate supply and demand pattern has undergone major changes.It is urgent to systematically sort out the global nickel sulfate consumption, to analyze the development trends of various downstream industries of nickel sulfate, to predict future demand, and to study the global nickel sulfate supply situation in order to ensure the stable supply of nickel resources in our country, and to provide reference for promoting the sound development of the new energy vehicle industry.The analysis believes that:according to the development trend of different types of power batteries, three possible scenarios of nickel sulfate demand have been set.Firstly, under the reference scenario, the global demand for nickel sulfate will increase from 640 000 tons to 3.67 million tons, which is nearly 473% higher than the current one; secondly, under the nickel scenario, the global demand for nickel sulfate will increase from 640 000 tons to 5.79 million tons, an increase of nearly 804% over the current period; thirdly, under the low nickel scenario, the global demand for nickel sulfate will increase from 640 000 tons to 2.12 million tons, 231% increase from the current level.Due to breakthroughs in production technology, the global nickel sulfate supply pattern has undergone major changes:the raw material structure of nickel sulfate production will change from the current nickel sulfide ore to laterite nickel ore, and the smelting methods are mainly wet and fire methods.The supply of nickel sulfate raw materials has shifted from Canada, Russia, and Australia to a pattern of countries where laterite nickel mines are distributed such as Indonesia and the Philippines.Based on the changes in the global nickel sulfate pattern, it is recommended that relevant domestic companies accelerate the investment in overseas laterite-type nickel ore-nickel sulfate production lines to seize to seize market opportunities.

       

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