洪水峰, 邓雅婷, 李红丹. 基于结构性权力理论的海外矿业投资风险评价[J]. 中国矿业, 2021, 30(10): 24-31. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.10.022
    引用本文: 洪水峰, 邓雅婷, 李红丹. 基于结构性权力理论的海外矿业投资风险评价[J]. 中国矿业, 2021, 30(10): 24-31. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.10.022
    HONG Shuifeng, DENG Yating, LI Hongdan. Risk evaluation of China’s overseas mining investment based on structural power theory[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2021, 30(10): 24-31. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.10.022
    Citation: HONG Shuifeng, DENG Yating, LI Hongdan. Risk evaluation of China’s overseas mining investment based on structural power theory[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2021, 30(10): 24-31. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.10.022

    基于结构性权力理论的海外矿业投资风险评价

    Risk evaluation of China’s overseas mining investment based on structural power theory

    • 摘要: 随着“一带一路”倡议的推进,中国海外矿业投资迅猛增长,同时也面临着众多风险,因此,必须要对海外矿业投资风险进行科学分析,提高风险抵御能力。本文基于结构性权力理论,首先构建以安全结构、生产结构、金融结构和知识结构为准则层的矿业投资风险评价指标体系;然后运用Topsis方法和灰色关联分析法,构建了灰色关联风险评价模型;最后对海外投资金属矿产的风险开展了实证研究。研究结果表明:政局稳定程度是影响海外矿业投资风险的关键因素,其次是教育普及程度、外交关系、社会稳定和资源禀赋;按照国别风险划分,伊朗、菲律宾、越南和波兰为高风险国家;俄罗斯、印度尼西亚、哈萨克斯坦、蒙古国为低风险国家;其他国家为中等风险国家。面对风险影响因素和投资国别的差异,海外矿业投资应科学评估东道国的政治稳定性、社会稳定性,对资源禀赋、开采便利性和基础设施完备性进行充分调研;创新海外矿业投资金融模式,加强矿业投资的专业人才建设和国内外法律条文的规范,以防范和规避海外矿业投资风险。

       

      Abstract: With the promotion of “the Belt and Road” initiative, China’s overseas mining investment is growing rapidly and also facing many risks.Therefore, it is necessary to conduct scientific analysis on the risks of overseas mining investment and improve the ability to resist risks.Based on the structural power theory, this paper firstly constructing the risk evaluation index system of overseas mining investment, which takes safety structure, production structure, financial structure and knowledge structure as the criterion layer.Then, the grey relational risk evaluation model is constructed by Topsis method and grey correlation analysis method.Finally, an empirical study on the risks of China’s overseas investment in metal minerals is carried out.The results show that political stability is the most important factor affecting the risk of outbound mining investment, followed by education popularity, diplomatic relations, social stability and resource endowment.According to the country risk analysis, Iran, the Philippines, Vietnam and Poland are high risk countries; Russia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan and Mongolia are low risk countries.Other countries are at medium risk.In the face of the difference of risk factors and investor countries, overseas mining investment should scientifically evaluate the political and social stability of the host country, and fully investigate the resource endowment, mining convenience and infrastructure completeness.And innovate the overseas mining investment financial mode, strengthen the construction of professional personnel in mining investment and domestic and overseas legal stripes, to prevent and avoid the overseas mining investment risk.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回