李富兵, 樊大磊, 王宗礼, 白羽, 王彧嫣. “双碳”目标下“拉闸限电”引发的中国能源供给的思考[J]. 中国矿业, 2021, 30(10): 1-6. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.10.027
    引用本文: 李富兵, 樊大磊, 王宗礼, 白羽, 王彧嫣. “双碳”目标下“拉闸限电”引发的中国能源供给的思考[J]. 中国矿业, 2021, 30(10): 1-6. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.10.027
    LI Fubing, FAN Dalei, WANG Zongli, BAI Yu, WANG Yuyan. Thoughts on China’s energy supply caused by “power rationing”under the goal of “carbon peak and neutrality”[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2021, 30(10): 1-6. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.10.027
    Citation: LI Fubing, FAN Dalei, WANG Zongli, BAI Yu, WANG Yuyan. Thoughts on China’s energy supply caused by “power rationing”under the goal of “carbon peak and neutrality”[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2021, 30(10): 1-6. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.10.027

    “双碳”目标下“拉闸限电”引发的中国能源供给的思考

    Thoughts on China’s energy supply caused by “power rationing”under the goal of “carbon peak and neutrality”

    • 摘要: 能源是关系我国经济社会发展全局的大事,保持能源长期稳定充足供给始终是一个必须高度重视的重大战略问题。当前国内外能源供需形势相对紧张,煤炭、天然气、电力等能源价格大幅上涨,但从较长时间看,能源供需形势较为宽松,供大于求的局面将持续较长时间。煤炭、石油等高碳能源消费量将持续下降,天然气、可再生能源消费量将大幅增长。近期“拉闸限电”现象提醒我们,要科学有序推进“双碳”目标的实现,但也不能因为“拉闸限电”而因噎废食,实现“双碳”目标的时间表不会改变,如何实现“双碳”目标是战术问题,需要我们付出异常艰苦的努力才能实现。本文通过剖析我国“拉闸限电”原因,分析国内外能源供需形势,提出“双碳”目标下中国能源供给的方向,主要政策建议:一是探索实现“双碳”目标的路径和方法;二是加快构建油气国内国际双循环新发展格局;三是调整油气资源管理思路,放缓油气勘查区块的退减节奏;四是加快发展非化石能源,优化能源结构;五是力争主导亚太区域油气贸易规则制定。

       

      Abstract: Energy is a major issue related to the overall economic and social development of China.Maintaining a long-term stable and adequate supply of energy is always a major strategic issue that must be paid close attention to. The current domestic and international energy supply and demand situation is relatively tight, and the prices of coal, natural gas, electricity and other energy have risen sharply. However, in a longer period of time, the energy supply and demand situation is relatively loose, and the situation of oversupply will continue for a long time. The consumption of high-carbon energy such as coal and oil will continue to decline, and the consumption of natural gas and renewable energy will increase substantially. The recent phenomenon of “power rationing” reminds us to scientifically and orderly promote the realization of the goal of “carbon peak and neutrality”, but we can’t give it up because of “power rationing”. The timetable for achieving the goal of “carbon peak and neutrality” will not change. How to achieve the goal of “carbon peak and neutrality” is a tactical issue that requires us to make extremely hard work to achieve it. This paper analyzes the reasons for China’s “power rationing”, and the situation of energy supply and demand at home and abroad, and proposes the direction of China’s energy supply under the goal of “carbon peak and neutrality”. The main policy recommendations are: firstly, to explore ways and methods to achieve the goal of “carbon peak and neutrality”; secondly, to accelerate the establishment of a new development pattern of domestic and international dual-cycle oil and gas; thirdly, to adjust the management thinking of oil and gas resources and slow down the pace of decline in oil and gas exploration blocks; fourthly, to accelerate the development of non-fossil energy and optimize the energy structure; fifthly, to strive to lead the formulation of oil and gas trade rules in the Asia-Pacific region.

       

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