Abstract:
Bulk minerals are the main minerals in the national economic construction.It is of great important to accurately predict the price and trend of bulk mineral products, which is of great significance to ensure the national resource and energy security and promote economic globalization.The choice of methods is the core of price prediction of bulk mineral products.With the diversification, complexity and interdisciplinary of methods, the difficulty of classifying the prediction methods is increasing.Based on the analysis of relevant documents, this paper combs the development history of the price prediction methods of bulk mineral products.Based on the summary of previous classification, according to the development trend and characteristics of the forecasting methods, a new way of classification of the price prediction methods of bulk mineral products is put forward.According to the literature summary and research, the existing forecasting methods can be divided into four types:qualitative forecasting method, econometric forecasting method, artificial intelligence forecasting method and mixed model forecasting method according to four factors, including prediction accuracy, discipline, technology and formation background.Through the analysis and comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of various methods, the research show that the classification can be operated, widely used and kept pace with the development, and can better meet the needs of different tasks, and thus provide effective support for improving the efficiency of method selection and improving prediction accuracy.In conclusion, combined with the current background, the paper puts forward the conclusions and prospects of the steep increase of price forecasting difficulty in the future, good applicability of new classification, the gradual mainstream of mixed forecasting model and correct understanding of the limitations of the method model.