2023年全球矿业展望

    Global mining outlook in 2023

    • 摘要: 2022年,世界经济在经历“V”型反转后增速逐步回落,增长不如预期。世界矿产勘查投资增速下降,铁、铜等大宗矿产勘查投资不足;开发投资增长,但诸多大型项目因为环境和基础设施问题而无法投入建设。受到新冠疫情反复、地缘局势紧张等因素影响,国际矿产品市场动荡加剧。需求萎缩致使铁矿石等大宗矿产品价格下跌,但在绿色转型推动下,锂、稀土等价格大幅上涨。资源民族主义表现形式多样化,多国宣布成立国家矿业公司、禁止原矿出口和提高权利金。展望2023年,世界经济下行风险加大,矿产资源国采矿业GDP下降。美国等西方国家勘探开发回归,金、锂和稀土继续成为勘查热点矿种。国际矿产品市场调整企稳,新能源汽车矿产需求依然旺盛。矿业公司ESG风险持续,将面临融资以及劳动力成本上升的挑战,但绿色转型将带来新机遇。关键矿产困局难解,美欧出台激励政策,刺激本土矿产勘查开发,并通过伙伴关系,提高安全供应保障。

       

      Abstract: In 2022, the growth rate of the world economy gradually decreased to a level lower than expected after experiencing a “V”-shaped reversal.The growth rate of global investment in mineral exploration has declined, and the exploration expenditure of bulk minerals, such as iron and copper was insufficient; mine construction investment has increased, but many large-scale projects cannot be put into construction due to environmental and infrastructure problems.Affected by factors such as repeated COVID-19 outbreaks and geopolitical tensions, the international mineral market has become more turbulent.The shrinking demand has led to a drop in the prices of bulk mineral products such as iron ore, but the prices of lithium and rare earths have risen sharply driven by the green transformation.The manifestations of resource nationalism are diversified, with the announcement of the establishment of national mining companies, banned the export of raw ore, and raised royalties in many countries.In 2023, the downside risks of the world economy will increase, with the decline of mining GDP in mineral-rich countries.Exploration and development in the United States and other Western countries have returned, and gold, lithium and rare earths continue to be hot minerals for exploration.The international mineral market will be adjusted and stabilized gradually, and the demand of critical minerals for new energy vehicles is still strong.Mining companies face persistent ESG (Environment, Social and Governance) risks and will face challenges in financing and rising labor costs, but green transformation will bring new opportunities.The dilemma of key minerals is difficult to solve, the western countries have introduced incentive policies to stimulate the exploration and development of domestic minerals, and improve security of supply through partnerships.

       

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