准南矿区煤矿隐蔽致灾因素风险评价

    Risk assessment of hidden disaster-causing factors in coal mines of Zhunnan Mining Area

    • 摘要: 针对以往煤矿隐蔽致灾因素分析的方法不利于整体上把握矿井的风险的情况,本文以昌吉州准南矿区为研究对象,基于层次分析法,以地质构造因素、自然地质因素、勘查(采掘)工程因素三个因素为基础,选取断层、瓦斯、顶板、火烧区、地下含水体、采空区、不良钻孔封闭等12个影响因子构建风险评价指标体系,构造相应的判断矩阵,计算得出各层次指标权重。基于模糊综合评判法,从矿区隐蔽致灾因素对煤矿安全影响程度的大小考虑,将评语集划分为高风险、较高风险、中等风险、低风险、较低风险五个等级,确定了模糊综合评判矩阵,以准南矿区宽沟煤矿为例进行了评价。研究结果表明:评价指标体系中,一级指标权重较高的为自然地质因素、勘查(采掘)工程因素,二级指标权重较高的为地下含水体、瓦斯、废弃老窑(井筒);准南矿区宽沟煤矿风险值介于45~50分之间,综合风险等级为中等风险;评价结果表明,该方法在昌吉州准南矿区煤矿隐蔽致灾因素评价方面具有适用性和可靠性。

       

      Abstract: The previous analysis methods for hidden disaster-causing factors in coal mines are not conducive to an overall understanding of the risks in the mine. This paper takes the Zhunnan Mining Area of Changji Prefecture as the research object and uses the AHP to establish a risk assessment index system based on three factors: geological structural factors, natural geological factors, and exploration(mining) engineering factors. Based on the three factors, select 12 influencing factors such as fault, gas, roof, burning area, underground water body, goaf, and bad borehole closure to construct a risk assessment index system, construct a corresponding judgment matrix, and calculate index weights at each level. Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, considering the degree of impact of hidden disaster-causing factors in mining areas on coal mine safety, the comment set is divided into five levels: higher risk, high risk, medium risk, low risk, and lower risk, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is determined. The evaluation matrix is evaluated by taking the Kuangou Coal Mine in Zhunnan Mining Area as an example. The research results show that in the evaluation index system, natural geological factors and exploration(mining) engineering factors have higher weights in the first-level indicators, and underground water body, gas, abandoned old kilns(shafts) have higher weights in the second-level indicators. The risk value of Kuangou Coal Mine in Zhunnan Mining Area is between 45 and 50 points, and the comprehensive risk level is medium risk. The evaluation results show that the method is applicable and reliable in the evaluation of hidden disaster-causing factors in coal mines in the Zhunnan Mining Area of Changji Prefecture.

       

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