颠覆性能源技术投资方案设计研究

    Research on the investment scheme design of disruptive energy technology

    • 摘要: 颠覆性能源技术是我国达成“双碳”目标、保证新旧能源有序衔接、实现绿色低碳高质量发展的关键所在。面对碳达峰碳中和的高标准和实现高质量发展的严要求,我国能源体系亟需有序转换衔接,但如何科学地对颠覆性能源技术全过程进行投资设计、进一步识别其盈利能力、市场风险等指标还有待进一步深入探究。本文梳理了颠覆性能源技术的相关研究,进一步依据不同生命周期阶段的特点设计了颠覆性能源技术投资规划方案、科学规划培育主体与支持方向,在此基础上运用SWOT模型与DELPHI法,建立“三类技术、四个阶段、三个步骤”的颠覆性能源技术投资规划设计方案,结合政治环境、经济环境、技术趋势、社会需求、现有竞争技术、潜在竞争技术、颠覆性能源技术的产业链能力、价值网络成熟度、技术类型、所处生命周期、EROI、CROI、NPV、内部收益率等形成指标体系,综合提出了匹配颠覆性能源技术投资方案的流程和范式,可为颠覆性能源技术的投资培育与市场推广提供参考,为相关政府部门制定配套政策提供参考建议。

       

      Abstract: Disruptive energy technology is the key to achieve the carbon peak and neutrality goals, ensure the orderly connection of old and new energy, and achieve green, low-carbon and high-quality development in China. In the face of the high standards of carbon peak carbon neutrality and the strict requirements of achieving high-quality development, China’s energy system needs to be transformed and connected in an orderly manner. However, how to scientifically invest and design the whole process of disruptive energy technology, and further identify its profitability, market risk and other indicators need to be further explored. This paper reviews the relevant research on disruptive energy technology, and further designs the investment planning scheme, scientific planning and cultivation subject and support direction of disruptive energy technology according to the characteristics of different life cycle stages. On this basis, the SWOT model and DELPHI method are used to establish the subversive energy technology investment planning and design scheme of “three types of technologies, four stages and three steps”. Combined with the political environment, economic environment, technological trends, social needs, existing competitive technologies, potential competitive technologies, industrial chain capabilities of subversive energy technologies, value network maturity, technology types, life cycle, EROI, CROI, NPV and IRR, the process and paradigm of matching subversive energy technology investment schemes are comprehensively proposed. It can provide reference for investment cultivation and market promotion of disruptive energy technology, and provide reference suggestions for relevant government departments to formulate supporting policies.

       

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