Abstract:
Vast capital, a great degree of uncertainty, and high investment risk are the characteristics of the economic activities of mining right. With the application of the real option method, uncertainty can be considered in the process of mining right development and management. It is significant for managers to increase the importance of flexibility in making decisions, thus, the method offers significant advantages in evaluating the value of mining right. As an important parameter in the real option pricing model, volatility plays a key role in the value evaluation. However, there are some restrictions that the parameter is assumed to be equivalent to the volatility of mineral product prices and is mostly treated as a constant during the complete life cycle. Taking copper mineral resources as an example, a mineral resource price volatility model based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) family models is established by analyzing the characteristics of copper price yield. Stochastic price volatility is subsequently generated during the mine service life, and cost volatility is additionally introduced to assess the mining rights value. The results indicate the EGARCH(1,1) model has the best-fitting effect under the
t distribution and the mining right value with cost volatility is higher than that determined by single price volatility. Based on the actual occurrence of random variation in volatility, the impact of price and cost volatility on the natural resources value is examined. The new approach increases the objectivity and realism of valuation results and can help managers better understand the flexibility value and make decisions based on future information.