楚明辉,许开立,徐晓虎,等. 基于博弈论组合赋权云模型的地下黄金矿山安全风险评价[J]. 中国矿业,xxxx,x(x):1-9. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.20230872
    引用本文: 楚明辉,许开立,徐晓虎,等. 基于博弈论组合赋权云模型的地下黄金矿山安全风险评价[J]. 中国矿业,xxxx,x(x):1-9. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.20230872
    CHU Minghui,XU Kaili,XU Xiaohu,et al. Safety risk assessment of underground gold mine based on cloud model with combination weighting of game theory[J]. China Mining Magazine,xxxx,x(x):1-9. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.20230872
    Citation: CHU Minghui,XU Kaili,XU Xiaohu,et al. Safety risk assessment of underground gold mine based on cloud model with combination weighting of game theory[J]. China Mining Magazine,xxxx,x(x):1-9. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.20230872

    基于博弈论组合赋权云模型的地下黄金矿山安全风险评价

    Safety risk assessment of underground gold mine based on cloud model with combination weighting of game theory

    • 摘要: 地下黄金矿山重大事故时有发生,造成了严重的人员伤亡和财产损失。为准确评价地下黄金矿山安全风险,本文提出了博弈论组合赋权法和云模型理论相结合的风险评价模型。首先,建立了包含人员因素、设备因素、井下环境、安全管理4个一级指标、28个二级指标的评价指标体系,划分了指标风险等级;其次,运用博弈论将决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)和最优最劣法(BWM)得到的指标权重进行最优化组合,同时根据决策实验室分析法得出的中心度和原因度分析了指标的重要程度和因果关系;最后,根据云模型理论确定了各风险等级的标准云参数,计算了综合云参数并生成评价综合云。将该模型应用于山东某地下黄金矿山进行安全风险评价,并与模糊综合评价法进行对比验证。研究结果表明:该黄金矿山现阶段安全风险等级为较低风险(II级),与工程实际评估结果相符;影响安全生产的主要因素为岗位工龄、学历水平、安全意识、监测监控设备、照明条件。该模型较好解决了评价指标存在的关联性、模糊性和随机性问题,可以提高地下黄金矿山安全风险评价结果准确性。

       

      Abstract: Major accidents in underground gold mines occur from time to time, causing serious casualties and property losses. In order to accurately evaluate the safety risk of underground gold mine, this paper puts forward a risk assessment model based on the combination of game theory and cloud model theory. Firstly, an assessment index system including 4 first-class indexes, including personnel factors, equipment factors, underground environment and safety management, and 28 second-class indexes is established, and the index risk levels are divided. Then, the weight of the indexes obtained by Decision Lab Analysis(DEMATEL) and Best-Worst Method(BWM) is combined optimally by game theory, and the importance and causality of the indexes are analyzed according to the centrality and cause degree obtained by Decision Lab Analysis(DEMATEL). Finally, according to the cloud model theory, the standard cloud parameters of each risk level are determined, and the comprehensive cloud parameters are calculated and the assessment comprehensive cloud is generated. The model is applied to an underground gold mine in Shandong Province for safety risk assessment, and compared with fuzzy comprehensive assessment method for verification. The results show that the current safety risk level of the gold mine is lower(level II), which is consistent with the actual assessment results of the project. The main factors affecting safety production are post length of service, educational level, safety awareness, monitoring equipment and lighting conditions. The model can solve the problems of relevance, fuzziness and randomness of assessment indexes, and can improve the accuracy of safety risk assessment results of underground gold mine.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回