基于ITHTS-DEMATEL方法的非煤矿山冒顶片帮事故风险评价

    Risk assessment of rib spalling and roof fall accidents in non-coal mines based on ITHTS-DEMATEL method

    • 摘要: 我国非煤矿山冒顶片帮事故多发,严重威胁员工生命安全,影响我国矿山企业安全健康稳定发展。本文基于ITHTS-DEMATEL方法对非煤矿山冒顶片帮事故风险进行评价,对于提升我国非煤矿山企业冒顶片帮事故风险管控水平具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。首先,基于危险源-目标系统交互作用理论(ITHTS)分析非煤矿山冒顶片帮事故的风险因素及危险源,进而构建非煤矿山冒顶片帮事故风险评估指标体系,明确各风险因素评估内容及赋分标准;其次,基于决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL),考虑各风险因素之间的相互影响,利用综合影响矩阵计算非煤矿山冒顶片帮事故各风险因素的影响度、被影响度、中心度、原因度,进而确定各风险因素的权重,以及原因因素和结果因素;最后,根据评估指标赋分标准和评估流程,对非煤矿山冒顶片帮事故风险进行评价。以某黄金矿山为例,采用基于ITHTS-DEMATEL方法的非煤矿山冒顶片帮事故风险评价模型对其冒顶片帮事故进行评价,得出该黄金矿山冒顶片帮事故风险等级为低风险(Ⅱ),属于可接受风险。该评价结果与企业自评及第三方评价机构评价结果一致,说明利用ITHTS-DEMATEL方法对非煤矿山冒顶片帮事故风险进行评价是可行且有效的。

       

      Abstract: The frequent occurrence of rib spalling and roof fall accidents in non-coal mines in China has seriously threatened the life safety of employees and affected the safe, healthy and stable development of mining enterprises in China. Based on ITHTS-DEMATEL method, this paper evaluates the risk of rib spalling and roof fall accidents in non-coal mines, which has important theoretical and practical significance for improving the risk control level of rib spalling and roof fall accidents in non-coal mine enterprises. Firstly, based on the interaction theory of hazard source and target system (ITHTS), the risk factors and hazard sources of rib spalling and roof fall accidents in non-coal mines are analyzed, and then the risk assessment index system of rib spalling and roof fall accidents in non-coal mines is constructed, and the assessment contents and scoring criteria of each risk factors are clarified. Secondly, based on decision laboratory analysis (DEMATEL), considering the mutual influence of each risk factors, the comprehensive influence matrix is used to calculate the influence degree, the influenced degree, the center degree and the cause degree of each risk factors of rib spalling and roof fall accidents in non-coal mines, and then the weight of each risk factors, the cause factors and the result factors are determined. Finally, according to the assessment index grading standard and evaluation process, the risk of rib spalling and roof fall accidents in non-coal mines are evaluated. Taking a gold mine as an example, a rib spalling and roof fall accidents risk assessment model based on ITHTS-DEMATEL method is adopted to evaluate its rib spalling and roof fall accidents, and it is concluded that the risk level of rib spalling and roof fall accidents in the gold mine is low risk (Ⅱ), which is an acceptable risk. The evaluation results are consistent with the self-evaluation results of the enterprise and the third-party evaluation institutions, it shows that the ITHTS-DEMATEL method is feasible and effective to evaluate the risk of rib spalling and roof fall accidents in non-coal mines.

       

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