基于动态物质流的中国锂二次供应潜力分析

    Analysis of lithium secondary supply potential in China based on dynamic material flow

    • 摘要: 随着全球对于碳减排和可再生能源的需求逐年增加,亟需解决可再生能源的转换和存储问题,而锂作为推动新能源革命的关键金属之一,其供给、流动和存量情况对于实现碳中和和可持续发展具有重要意义。本文构建了基于全生命周期贸易关联的锂资源物质流分析框架,系统分析了2000—2022年中国锂资源的供给、流动和存量,估算了2023—2035年中国含锂报废产品中锂金属回收潜力。研究结果表明,现阶段锂电池是锂资源的主要消费领域,锂电池消费量从2000年的0.06万t金属锂增长至2022年的13.26万t金属锂,消费占比从12%增至92%。与此同时,锂电池报废量快速增长,预计到2035年中国锂消费量将达到29.27万t,锂二次资源回收潜力将达到16.10万t。基于研究结果,建议从稳定锂资源的上游供应、推动锂产业高质量发展和完善废弃锂电池回收利用体系三方面进行相关政策制定,实现锂产业健康可持续发展。

       

      Abstract: As the global demand for carbon emission reduction and renewable energy increases year by year, it is urgent to solve the conversion and storage of renewable energy. As one of the key metals to promote the new energy revolution, the supply, flow and stock of lithium are of great significance for achieving carbon neutrality and sustainable development. In this paper, a material flow analysis framework for lithium resources based on full life cycle trade linkages is constructed to systematically analyze the supply, flow and stock of lithium resources in China from 2000 to 2022, and to estimate the recovery potential of lithium metal in end-of-life products containing lithium in China from 2023 to 2035. The results show that lithium battery is the main consumption area of lithium resources at this stage, lithium battery consumption increased from 600 tons of lithium metal in 2000 to 132 600 tons of lithium metal in 2022, the proportion of consumption increased from 12% to 92%. At the same time, the scrapped volume of lithium batteries is growing rapidly, and it is expected that China’s lithium consumption will reach 292 700 tons by 2035, and the potential for lithium secondary resource recovery will reach 161 000 tons. Based on the research results, it is suggested to formulate relevant policies from three aspects: stabilizing the upstream supply of lithium resources, promoting the high-quality development of lithium industry and improving the recycling system of waste lithium batteries, so as to achieve the healthy and sustainable development of lithium industry.

       

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