Abstract: As a low-carbon, high-efficiency and clean energy source, accurately grasping the trend of natural gas consumption is of great significance to the high-quality development of the economy and atmospheric governance. This paper selects the gross regional product, industrial structure, population development, urbanization rate, energy consumption structure, and consumption level as the potential influencing factors of natural gas consumption. Then, it examines the time-series characteristics of variable data and determines the fluctuation of data of each variable by using the ADF test. Finally, exploring the effective driving factors of natural gas consumption using the Spearman correlation analysis method, and constructs the C-D production function model based on the effective driving factors to predict and analyze the natural gas consumption of the Sichuan Province. The results show that the most effective driver of natural gas consumption in Sichuan Province is the regional GDP, followed by energy consumption structure and population development. The future natural gas consumption in Sichuan Province shows a growing trend, but the growth rate decreases, and by 2040 the natural gas consumption in Sichuan Province will reach about 5.09×10¹⁰ m³, with the growth rate decreasing to 2.69%. Scientific planning for the high-quality development of economy in Sichuan Province and accelerating the introduction of policies for the development and utilization of new energy sources are key measures for controlling the growth of natural gas consumption. Effective control of population growth is the main measure to promote the growth of natural gas consumption in Sichuan Province. Research can achieve non-linear predictive analysis of the future trend of natural gas consumption in Sichuan Province, providing decision-making basis for scientific planning in Sichuan Province natural gas development plan and promoting high-quality development of the economic circle of Chengdu and Chongqing