我国油气产业高质量发展差异分解及动态演进研究

    Research on differential decomposition and dynamic evolution of high-quality development of oil and gas industry in China

    • 摘要: 目前,中国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,石油和天然气作为保障中国能源安全的主体能源,为实现经济高质量发展保驾护航的同时也面临资源约束与碳减排的双重压力。此外,“双碳”目标的提出对油气产业实现向减碳节能转型发展提出了更高要求。鉴于此,科学评价油气产业高质量发展水平,深入探究差异来源和贡献程度对于助推我国经济高质量发展进程显得尤为必要。首先,以2012—2021年油气产业发展数据为研究样本,采用改进后的CRITIC-TOPSIS动态评价法对油气产业高质量发展水平进行评价。其次,采用Dagum基尼系数法、核密度估计、收敛性检验方法对上中下游油气产业链、区域油气产业高质量发展差异来源和差异贡献度进行分析,并在此基础上对其分布动态和动态演进特征进行探究。研究结果表明:上游产业已达到高质量发展水平,中游产业和下游产业发展质量较上游产业仍较低;西部区域油气产业发展质量最高,高质量发展水平优势巨大,中部区域次之,东部区域最低;我国上中下游油气产业链、东中西部区域油气产业总体差异较大,发展水平表现为“不均衡”;油气产业高质量发展的差异主要源于上游、中游、下游的组内差异,超变密度差异则对区域总体差异的影响最大;油气产业全行业高质量发展水平核密度函数的中心点逐步向右移动,高质量发展水平逐步提升;同时,上游产业高质量发展收敛趋势存在σ收敛,西部区域油气产业高质量发展可能存在σ收敛。本文研究能够为我国油气产业持续提升高质量发展水平提供一定参考。

       

      Abstract: At present, China’s economy has shifted from the stage of high-speed growth to the stage of high-quality development. As the main energy to ensure China’s energy security, oil and natural gas are facing the dual pressure of resource constraints and carbon emission reduction while escorting the realization of high-quality economic development. In addition, the “dual carbon” goal puts forward higher requirements for the oil and gas industry to achieve the transition to carbon reduction and energy-saving development. In view of this, it is particularly necessary to scientifically evaluate the high-quality development level of the oil and gas industry and deeply explore the sources of differences and the degree of contribution to boost the high-quality development process of China’s economy. Firstly, taking the development data of the oil and gas industry from 2012 to 2021 as research samples, the improved CRITIC-TOPSIS dynamic evaluation method is adopted to evaluate the high-quality development level of the oil and gas industry. Secondly, Dagum Gini coefficient method, nuclear density estimation and convergence test methods are used to analyze the sources and contribution of differences in the high-quality development of the upstream, midstream and downstream of the oil and gas industry chain and regional oil and gas industry, and on this basis to explore their distribution dynamics and dynamic evolution characteristics. The results show that the upstream industry has reached the high-quality development level, and the development quality of the midstream industry and the downstream industry is still lower than that of the upstream industry; the oil and gas industry in Western China has the highest development quality and great advantages in high-quality development level, followed by Central China and the lowest in Eastern China. China’s upstream, midstream and downstream of the oil and gas industry chain, regional east, central and western regions, the overall difference is large, the development level is “unbalanced”; the difference of high-quality development of oil and gas industry is mainly due to the intra-group difference of upstream, midstream and downstream, and the difference of super-variable density has the greatest impact on the overall regional difference. The central point of the core density function of the high-quality development level of the oil and gas industry gradually moved to the right, and the high-quality development level gradually improved. At the same time, the convergence trend of the high-quality development of the upstream industry has σ convergence, and the high-quality development of the oil and gas industry in Western China may have σ convergence. The research in this paper can provide some reference for the continuous improvement of the high quality development level of China’s oil and gas industry.

       

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