淮南矿区导水裂隙带高度预测研究

    Research on prediction of water-conducting fractured zone height in Huainan Mining Area

    • 摘要: 导水裂隙带发育高度的精准预测直接关系到煤矿的安全生产,亦是矿山工程领域亟待解决的重难点问题。当前,BP神经网络作为一种较为成熟的算法被广泛应用于导水裂隙带高度预测,但存在权重分配不合理、易陷入局部最优等缺陷,导致预测精度难以满足实际生产需求。为提高BP神经网络的预测准确性,本文以淮南矿区为研究区域,收集49例导水裂隙带高度实测数据,选取开采厚度、煤层倾角、开采深度、工作面斜长和硬岩比例系数作为影响因子,引入灰狼优化算法(GWO)对BP神经网络的权值和阈值进行优化,构建GWO-BP神经网络导水裂隙带高度预测模型。采用44例数据作为训练样本,5例数据作为检验样本,对模型的预测性能进行验证,并与BP神经网络和经验公式的预测结果对比分析。研究结果表明,经GWO优化后的BP神经网络预测性能显著提升,其预测的准确性和稳定性均优于BP神经网络和经验公式。检验样本的预测结果显示,平均绝对误差不超过0.51 m,平均相对误差不超过1.12%。将训练后的模型应用于顾北煤矿北二采区1312(1)工作面,将预测结果与地面钻孔传统实测数据及分布式光纤与高密度电法综合实测数据进行比较,误差分别为0.26 m,相对误差为0.54%,因此,GWO-BP神经网络具有良好的工程适用性,可为矿井顶板防治水工作提供可靠的技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: Accurate prediction of the development height of water-conducting fractured zones is directly related to the safe production of coal mines and remains a key and difficult issue to be addressed in the field of mining engineering. Currently, the BP neural network, as a relatively mature algorithm, is widely used in predicting the height of water-conducting fractured zones. However, it has drawbacks such as unreasonable weight distribution and a tendency to fall into local optima, resulting in prediction accuracy that fails to meet the needs of actual production. To improve the prediction accuracy of the BP neural network, this study takes the Huainan Mining Area as the research region, collects 49 sets of measured data on the height of water-conducting fractured zones, and selects mining thickness, coal seam dip angle, mining depth, working face slope length, and hard rock proportion coefficient as influencing factors. The Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) is introduced to optimize the weights and thresholds of the BP neural network, thereby constructing a GWO-BP neural network model for predicting the height of water-conducting fractured zones. A total of 44 sets of data are used as training samples, and 5 sets as test samples to verify the prediction performance of the model, which is further compared with the prediction results of the BP neural network and empirical formulas. The results show that the BP neural network optimized by GWO exhibits significantly improved prediction performance, with higher accuracy and stability than both the unoptimized BP neural network and empirical formulas. For the test samples, the mean absolute error does not exceed 0.51 m, and the mean relative error is within 1.12%. The trained model is applied to the 1312(1) working face in the North No.2 Mining Area of Gubei Coal Mine. A comparison between the predicted results and the traditional measured data from surface boreholes, as well as the comprehensive measured data from distributed optical fiber and high-density electrical method, shows an error of 0.26 m and a relative error of 0.54%, respectively. These findings indicate that the GWO-BP neural network has good engineering applicability and can provide reliable technical support for water prevention and control work in mine roof areas.

       

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