稀土元素价格波动特征及其对中国稀土产业的影响

    Characteristics of rare earth element price fluctuations and their impact on China’s rare earth industry

    • 摘要: 本文旨在研究稀土元素价格波动对中国稀土产业的影响,通过对比分析2011年和2020年两次稀土元素价格波动规律,探讨其对产业链、供应链的具体作用机制,以期为中国稀土产业可持续发展提供策略建议。在产业链方面,分析价格上涨对稀土资源开采,以及终端应用企业的影响;在供应链方面,研究价格波动对稀土企业原料成本、运营风险、供应链稳定性的作用机制。同时,结合国际稀土产业格局的变化,探讨价格波动对西方重构稀土供应链的影响。研究发现,2011年和2020年两轮稀土元素价格波动在上涨趋势、幅度和时间上存在显著差异。在产业链层面,价格上涨显著增加了产业链前端稀土资源的开采强度,但终端应用企业对价格持续上涨的承受能力较强,显示出产业链不同环节对价格波动的敏感性差异。在供应链层面,价格波动导致稀土企业的原料成本大幅上升,运营风险显著增加,最终影响了整个供应链的稳定性。此外,价格波动还加速了西方重构稀土供应链的步伐,对中国稀土产业国际地位和市场份额构成潜在威胁。为应对稀土元素价格波动带来的挑战,建议加快高丰度稀土永磁材料研发进度,加大稀土绿色开采和冶炼的环保技术投入,抢占产业科技制高点;实施分元素管控策略,大幅增加钕、镝等关键元素的供给,稳定稀土元素价格;同时,鼓励企业进行海外布局并保持与西方国家的贸易往来,以提升中国稀土产业在全球市场的竞争力和抗风险能力。

       

      Abstract: This paper aims to study the impact of fluctuations in rare earth element prices on China’s rare earth industry. By comparing and analyzing the price fluctuations of rare earth elements in 2011 and 2020, the specific mechanisms of their effects on the industrial chain and supply chain are explored, in order to provide strategic recommendations for the sustainable development of China’s rare earth industry. In terms of the industrial chain, analyze the impact of price increases on rare earth resource mining and terminal application enterprises; in terms of supply chain, study the mechanism of price fluctuations on the raw material costs, operational risks, and supply chain stability of rare earth enterprises. At the same time, combined with the changes in the international rare earth industry pattern, this paper explores the impact of price fluctuations on the reconstruction of rare earth supply chains in the West. The research has found significant differences in the upward trend, magnitude, and timing of rare earth element price fluctuations between 2011 and 2020. At the level of the industrial chain, the significant increase in prices has increased the mining intensity of rare earth resources at the front end of the industrial chain. However, end application enterprises have a strong ability to withstand continuous price increases, indicating differences in the sensitivity of different links in the industrial chain to price fluctuations. At the supply chain level, price fluctuations have led to a significant increase in raw material costs and operational risks for rare earth enterprises, ultimately affecting the stability of the entire supply chain. In addition, price fluctuations have accelerated the pace of restructuring the rare earth supply chain in the West, posing a potential threat to the international status and market share of China’s rare earth industry. To cope with the challenges brought by fluctuations in rare earth element prices, it is recommended to accelerate the research and development progress of high abundance rare earth permanent magnet materials, increase investment in environmental protection technologies for green mining and smelting of rare earths, and seize the commanding heights of industrial technology; implement element based control strategies, significantly increase the supply of key elements such as neodymium and dysprosium, and stabilize the prices of rare earth elements; at the same time, encourage enterprises to expand overseas and maintain trade relations with Western countries to enhance the competitiveness and risk resistance of China’s rare earth industry in the global market.

       

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