全球锡原材料贸易竞争网络格局演化分析

    Analysis of the evolution of the trade competition network pattern of global tin raw material

    • 摘要: 锡作为支撑国家经济发展的战略资源,受到各个国家(地区)的高度重视。随着锡在光伏发电、新能源汽车等新兴产业的广泛应用,锡原材料的供需矛盾日益凸显,加剧了其进出口国(地区)之间的竞争。对全球锡原材料贸易竞争格局的现状及演化过程开展分析,有助于世界各国(地区)构建弹性的锡原材料供应链。本文基于2003—2022年锡原材料(锡矿石、锡废料)国际贸易数据,构建其国际贸易网络和进出口竞争网络,利用复杂网络方法分析锡原材料进出口竞争网络在长时序视角下的结构特征、演化规律和国家(地区)间竞争特点。研究结果表明:锡原材料进出口竞争强度分布不均匀,锡矿石的竞争集中特征相较于锡废料更为明显。锡矿石竞争寡头垄断趋势明显,锡废料竞争日趋激烈。锡矿石进出口竞争均趋向于一体化,锡废料进出口竞争逐渐转变为区域竞争。锡原材料进出口竞争网络均呈现出显著的核心-边缘结构。锡矿石进口竞争和出口竞争的核心均位于亚洲,欧美国家是锡废料进口竞争和出口竞争的核心。中国、缅甸逐步演变为锡矿石进口竞争和出口竞争的矛盾中心;加拿大逐步演变为锡废料进口竞争和出口竞争的矛盾中心。建议中国等锡资源消费大国合理规划锡产业,多元化锡资源进口渠道,并加强再生锡产业的发展。

       

      Abstract: As a strategic resource supporting national economic development, tin is highly valued by various countries(regions). With the wide application of tin in photovoltaic power generation, new energy vehicles and other emerging industries, the contradiction between the supply and demand of tin raw materials has become increasingly prominent, exacerbating the competition between its importing and exporting countries(regions). Analyzing the current status and evolutionary trends of trade competition pattern of global tin raw materials can help countries and regions build resilient supply chains for tin raw materials. Based on the international trade data of tin raw materials(tin ore and tin scrap) from 2003 to 2022, this paper constructs its international trade network, import and export competition network, and analyzes the structural characteristics, evolution trends, and competitive dynamics among countries(regions) within the import-export competition networks of tin raw materials from a long-term perspective. The results show that the distribution of import and export competition intensity of tin raw materials are uneven, and the competition concentration of tin ore is more obvious. The trend of oligopoly of competition of tin ore is obvious, and the competition of tin scrap is getting more and more intense. The import and export competition of tin ore tends to become increasingly integrated, while the import and export competition of tin scrap is gradually shifting toward regionalization. The import and export competition network of tin raw materials show a significant core-periphery structure. The core of import and export competition of tin ore are located in Asia, European and American countries are the core of import and export competition of tin scrap. China and Myanmar have gradually evolved into the contradictory centers of import and export competition of tin ore. Canada has gradually evolved into the contradictory center of import and export competition of tin ore. It is recommended that major tin-consuming countries, such as China, strategically plan their tin industries, diversify tin resource import channels, and strengthen the development of the recycled tin industry.

       

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