基于GA-SVR的瓦斯抽采纯量预测及自适应调控模型研究

    Research on gas extraction volume prediction and adaptive control model based on GA-SVR

    • 摘要: 为了解决瓦斯抽采后期由于含量降低导致瓦斯抽采纯量降低,抽采效果难以预测并且抽采效率低下的问题。基于抽采过程中各因素的非线性耦合特性,选择了支持向量回归机(SVR)和随机森林算法(RF)建立瓦斯抽采纯量预测模型对瓦斯抽采纯量进行预测,并通过遗传算法(GA)对模型中的超参数进行优选。研究结果表明,GA-SVR模型预测的平均绝对误差为303.62,均方根误差为565.42,预测模型的平均绝对百分比误差为0.023,均高于同类模型。并且在顺层钻孔抽采过程中煤层经过多轮抽采后,抽采负压对抽采浓度和抽采纯量的控制作用被削弱,抽采负压对抽采浓度的控制效果降低,但仍能表现出对单日累计抽采纯量的相关性,而在穿层钻孔抽采条件下,抽采纯量和抽采浓度均对抽采负压的变化较为灵敏。因此,在GA-SVR预测模型的基础上,以管网瓦斯抽采纯量最大为目标,建立了瓦斯抽采负压自适应调控模型,现场对照试验表明以30 d为调控周期的自适应调控模型能在瓦斯抽采后期使试验钻孔组平均瓦斯抽采纯量比对照组提升5.08%,同时在前15 d使瓦斯抽采纯量提升7.15%,研究结果可以为瓦斯抽采后期的纯量预测及负压调控提供指导。

       

      Abstract: To address the challenges of reduced gas extraction volume due to declining gas content in the later stages of extraction, which result in unpredictable extraction outcomes and low efficiency, this study leverages the nonlinear coupling characteristics of various factors during the extraction process. Support Vector Regression(SVR) and Random Forest(RF) algorithms are employed to develop a predictive model for gas extraction volume, with hyperparameters optimized using a Genetic Algorithm(GA). The results indicate that the GA-SVR model achieved an average absolute error of 303.62, a root mean square error of 565.42, and an average absolute percentage error of 0.023, outperforming comparable models. Moreover, during stratified borehole extraction, the influence of extraction negative pressure on extraction concentration and volume diminishes after multiple extraction cycles, reducing its control effect on extraction concentration but still showing a correlation with daily cumulative extraction volume. In contrast, under cross-layer borehole extraction conditions, both extraction volume and concentration are more sensitive to changes in negative pressure. Based on the GA-SVR prediction model, an adaptive control model for negative pressure regulation is developed to maximize the gas extraction volume of the pipeline network. Field comparison tests demonstrate that the adaptive control model, with a 30-day regulation cycle, increased the average gas extraction volume by 5.08% compared to the control group in the later stages of extraction, with a 7.15% increase observed in the first 15 days. These findings provide valuable guidance for predicting gas extraction volume and regulating negative pressure in the later stages of gas extraction.

       

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