Abstract:
The study on the evolution of copper mineral trade network pattern and its influencing factors in countries along “the Belt and Road” is helpful to optimize the current situation of copper mineral product trade in countries along “the Belt and Road” and provide a reference for China to formulate copper mineral product trade and investment policies. Based on the perspective of the copper industry chain, this paper analyzes the characteristics of the evolution of the trade pattern and its influence mechanism of five products, namely, upstream (copper ore, copper scrap), midstream (crude copper, refined copper) and downstream (copper material), using the copper trade data of the countries along “the Belt and Road” from 2003 to 2022 with the use of the complex network method and the ERGM model. The study found that: ① the trade links and scale of copper products along “the Belt and Road” have been expanding, and the big copper trading countries have strong trade links. ② The trade networks of the five copper products, especially the trade network of copper ore and copper material products, have high connectivity, tightness and transmission efficiency. ③ The core countries, such as China, India and Turkey, are in “the Belt and Road”, and the trade networks of the five copper mineral products have high connectivity, tightness and transmission efficiency. The core countries such as China, India and Turkey occupy a leading position in the trade network of the five copper mineral products in “the Belt and Road” and have strong control ability, while some countries such as Singapore, Poland and Malaysia and other trade transit countries play an intermediary role in the trade of crude copper and refined copper. ④ Copper mineral product trade is driven by reciprocity, expansiveness, convergence, actors’ attributes and network covariates. Copper trade is driven by reciprocity, expansion, convergence, actor attributes and network covariates. Reciprocity, expansiveness and convergence have significant heterogeneous effects on the five copper mineral product trade networks, actor attributes such as level of economic development, ore and metal exports and population size significantly affect copper mineral product trade, and among the network covariates, geographic proximity and trade agreements are positively driven by the copper mineral product trade networks, while the effect of a common language is less significant.