Abstract:
In the first half of 2024, hot spots continue to be turbulent, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been prolonged, the Palestinian Israeli conflict continues to escalate and there is a risk of spillover, and Yemeni Hussai armed forces continue to attack targets in the Red Sea area and impact international shipping. The world economy is slowly recovering, regional development is uneven, and emerging economies are leading global economic growth. OPEC+ oil producing countries continue to reduce production to support oil prices, while non OPEC oil producing countries such as the United States maintain high production levels. Geopolitics, macroeconomics, OPEC+ joint production cuts and other factors have impacted the international oil market, causing international oil prices to fluctuate widely at mid to high levels due to the combination of many uncertain factors. The global oil supply and demand are steadily increasing and overall balanced. Affected by factors such as mild winter climate, sufficient inventory, and improved supply and demand structure in major natural gas markets such as Europe, the prices of major natural gas markets around the world continue to remain at a relatively low level. China’s economic development continues to rebound and show a positive trend. The reform of mining management is steadily advancing. The exploration and development of oil and gas continue to increase, and the results of oil and gas exploration are significant. Conventional oil and gas exploration has made many new discoveries in new areas, new types, and new layers of large oil and gas basins such as Tarim, Sichuan, Junggar, Ordos, and Bohai Bay. Unconventional oil and gas exploration has made many important breakthroughs and progress in Sichuan Basin and surrounding areas, Junggar and other basins. Crude oil production is steadily increasing, while natural gas production is growing rapidly. It is expected that in the second half of 2024, the overall balance of international oil and gas supply and demand will be maintained, and the oil and gas market will still be affected by macroeconomic, financial interest rates, energy policies, geopolitical events, and other factors. It is expected that domestic oil production will exceed 212 million tons by 2024, and natural gas (including shale gas and coalbed methane) production will exceed 240 billion cubic meters.