莫桑比克海洋天然气勘探开发形势与合作前景分析

    Analysis of the situation of offshore natural gas exploration and development in Mozambique and cooperation prospects

    • 摘要: 天然气是能源转型趋势下的最现实能源。在能源博弈日趋激烈的背景下,加紧对重点天然气资源国的新形势研究对于支撑我国能源安全新战略和“双碳”战略具有重要意义。东非地区是21世纪天然气重大发现的集中地,莫桑比克天然气资源潜力巨大,在海域连获重大天然气发现,有望成为非洲地区的关键天然气出口国。根据莫桑比克海洋天然气资源潜力和勘探开发现状的系统梳理总结,基于SLEPT分析框架,从社会、法律、经济、政治、技术五个维度对该国海洋天然气产业投资环境进行了多学科视角研究,认为莫桑比克天然气资源潜力大,勘探开发程度低;地缘战略位置优越,具有成为区域天然气集散中心和LNG走廊的地理位置优势,区域不稳定因素有望改善;油气投资法律环境宽松,外资具有较大参与空间;该国急需通过天然气开发缓解经济困局,外来投资复苏势头强劲;政策稳定预期较高,与我国合作前景优越,但与相关国家的竞争日趋激烈;基础设施存在短板,勘探成本相对较高,为我国提供了发挥基建优势的有利机会,综合认为莫桑比克天然气开发利用环境存在较大机遇。建议未来加强莫桑比克深海油气地质基础研究;充分利用现有合作平台和机制,同时加强对潜力合作区的经济评价和可行性分析;多措并举,加强各类风险防范;加强“软环境”建设,巩固合作基础。

       

      Abstract: Natural gas is the most reliable energy source under the trend of energy transition. In the context of the increasingly fierce energy competition, it is of great significance to step up the research on the new situation of key natural gas resource countries to support China’s new energy security strategy and realizing “dual carbon” goals. East Africa has been home to major natural gas discoveries since the 21st century. Mozambique is endowed with great natural gas resources potential and has witnessed a series of major natural gas discoveries in recent years, which is expected to become a key natural gas exporter in Africa. Based on the analysis of resource potential and exploration and development status of Mozambique’s offshore natural gas and a “SLPET” analysis framework, a multidisciplinary research on the investment environment of offshore natural gas industry of Mozambique is conducted from social, legal, economic, political and technical perspectives. It concludes that Mozambique presents a great resource potential but low level of exploration and development; with a superior geographical location, it’s expected to become a regional natural gas distribution center and LNG corridor. The regional instability is also improving; the legal environment for oil and gas investment is flexible, exerting great opportunities for foreign enterprises; Mozambique needs to address its economic difficulties by natural gas development and attracting foreign investment; the policy regime is stable, but the competition with other countries is getting fierce; the weakness in infrastructure lifted the exploration costs, which created favorable opportunities for China’s experience in infrastructure construction. The overall environment for the development and utilization of natural gas in Mozambique is favorable. It is recommended to strengthen cooperation with Mozambique in basic research of deep-water gas, make full use of the existing cooperation platforms and mechanisms, and strengthen the economic evaluation and feasibility analysis of potential cooperation zones; to step up risk prevention efforts with multiple measures; to promote the nurturing of a “soft environment” and consolidate the foundation for cooperation.

       

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