Abstract:
The global cobalt mineral resources are unevenly distributed and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. Analyzing the evolution characteristics of the cobalt mineral product trade pattern has important strategic significance for the study and judgment of China’s cobalt mineral product trade position and the security of the cobalt industry chain. Based on complex network analysis, this paper uses data from the United Nations Commodity Trade Database from 2004 to 2023 to depict the evolution of the global cobalt product trade pattern in the past 20 years. The results show that: ① from the perspective of trade scale, the global total trade of cobalt products is consistent with the change trend of the total trade volume, but there are great differences in the change trend of trade volume and trade quantity in different links, which is manifested in the significant decline in the upstream trade volume of cobalt mineral products, but the change of trade volume is little. The trade volume and trade quantity of cobalt mineral products in the midstream and downstream reaches increased greatly. ② From the perspective of trade network structure, firstly, the global cobalt trade network density shows a steady upward trend. Among them, the upstream network density decreases slightly, the midstream increases steadily and then fluctuates, and the downstream changes are consistent with the midstream, but the downstream network density is lower than the midstream, and the growth rate is higher than the midstream. Secondly, the upstream, midstream and downstream links of the global cobalt mineral products trade have the characteristics of a “small world” network, especially the downstream link is more significant. Thirdly, the centrality of the global cobalt product trade network as a whole shows a trend of “steady rise before slow decline”, and the network centrality of China in the upstream, midstream and downstream links is on the rise. ③ From the perspective of trade network community, the division of cobalt mineral products trade network community has evolved from the traditional Europe-centric to global diversification, and the community status of China and other African countries(South Africa, Morocco, etc.) has become more stable, and the influence and competitiveness of cobalt products trade have been significantly improved. Finally,we should broaden the import channels and optimize the import structure. Strengthen the exploration of domestic cobalt resources and encourage enterprises to “go out”. In terms of establishing a cobalt trade early warning linkage mechanism to cope with market supply and demand fluctuations, policy suggestions are put forward to enhance the trade competitiveness of cobalt products in China.