Abstract:
As an indispensable key metal for the development of strategic emerging industries and national defense industry, nickel has become a new focus of international trade competition due to its resource scarcity and strategic importance. However, China’s nickel resources are highly dependent on imports, and it is of great significance to grasp the trade pattern and influencing factors of China’s nickel industry chain. Based on the import and export data of nickel products in China from 2000 to 2022 and related economic and social indicators, this paper uses GIS spatial technology and negative binomial regression model to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of the foreign trade pattern of China’s nickel industry chain and related influencing factors. The results show that: ① the overall fluctuation of the foreign trade volume of China’s nickel industry chain has increased, and the import volume has always been greater than the export value. ② The upstream and midstream products of the nickel industry chain gradually replace the downstream products as the main component of imports, and the downstream stainless steel products are the largest export products, following the development model of “importing nickel ore raw materials with low added value-domestic processing, R&D and manufacturing-exporting nickel products with higher added value”. ③ The import pattern of upstream and midstream products in China’s nickel industry chain is gradually diversified. The number of midstream exporters is much larger than that of importing countries, and the products are mainly sold to neighboring economic developed countries. The import trade of downstream products is highly concentrated in major markets, and the major exporting countries are gradually shifting from developed countries to developing countries, and the trade with countries along “the Belt and Road” is becoming increasingly close. ④ The attributes of trading countries, national proximity, international trade environment and political relations affect the foreign trade of China’s nickel industry chain products.