基于复杂网络的锰产业链国际贸易格局演化研究

    Study on the evolution of international trade pattern of manganese industry chain based on complex network

    • 摘要: 锰作为发展战略性新兴产业的重要矿产资源,具有重要的战略价值。锰矿及其产品贸易是全球货物贸易的重要组成部分,随着国民经济的增长,中国锰资源消费量快速增长,但由于资源难以满足国内生产需求,中国已经成为全球第一大锰资源进口国。为深入研究锰产业链各阶段产品国际贸易的格局和特征,了解中国及其他主要贸易国在锰产业链贸易网络中的角色和地位,本文基于复杂网络理论,选取2010—2023年贸易数据构建全球锰产业链贸易网络,从整体网络和个体网络对其贸易特征及演变趋势进行分析。研究结果表明:①锰产业链整体贸易规模扩大,锰矿、硅锰合金、锰废渣的国际贸易均处于寡占型市场;②锰产业链国际贸易的广泛性及复杂性减弱,贸易连通性仍有待提高,贸易依赖度始终处于较低水平;③锰矿主要进口国的贸易控制能力普遍高于出口国,中国和印度在全球锰矿贸易中起到显著的“桥梁”作用;④中国对世界锰废渣贸易网络具有较高的调控和影响力。总的来说,锰产业链贸易网络虽然规模在扩大,但是国家间联系仍然较为松散,贸易效率有待提升。

       

      Abstract: Manganese, being an essential mineral resource for the development of strategic emerging industries, holds significant strategic value. The trade of manganese ore and its related products constitutes a crucial component of global goods trade. With the expansion of the national economy, China’s consumption of manganese resources has witnessed a rapid growth. However, due to the insufficiency of domestic resources to meet domestic production demands, China has emerged as the world’s largest importer of manganese resources. To conduct an in-depth study on the international trade patterns and characteristics of products at various stages of the manganese industry chain and to understand the roles and status of China and other major trading countries within the trade network of the manganese industry chain, based on complex network theory, this paper selects trade data from 2010 to 2023 to construct the global manganese industry chain trade network and analyzes its trade characteristics and evolution trends from both the overall and individual network perspectives. The research findings indicate that: ① the overall trade scale of the manganese industry chain has expanded, with the international trade of manganese ore, silicon manganese alloy, and manganese slag all being in an oligopolistic market; ② the extensiveness and complexity of international trade in the manganese industry chain have weakened, trade connectivity still requires improvement, and trade dependence remains at a relatively low level; ③ the trade control capabilities of major manganese ore importing countries are generally higher than those of exporting countries, and China and India play notable “bridge” roles in global manganese ore trade; ④ China holds a considerable degree of regulation and influence over the world’s manganese slag trade network. Although the scale of the manganese industry chain trade network is expanding, the connections among countries remain relatively loose, and trade efficiency awaits enhancement.

       

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