Abstract: As a strategic critical mineral resource, iron ore has profound impacts on the development of the global steel industry through its price fluctuations. From the perspective of industrial security, this study conducts an in-depth analysis of the impacts and time-lag effects of iron ore price fluctuations on steel industry output. Utilizing monthly data from January 2007 to December 2020, a Vector Autoregression （VAR） model is constructed to comprehensively examine the dynamic relationships between international and domestic iron ore markets, as well as the transmission mechanisms of iron ore price fluctuations on domestic steel industry output. The results indicate that the international iron ore market exerts a significant unidirectional impact on the domestic iron ore market. However, fluctuations in international iron ore prices do not directly impact the output of the domestic steel industry. In contrast, domestic iron ore price fluctuations have a significant unidirectional impact on domestic steel industry output, with a certain time-lag effect. This suggests that price signals in the domestic iron ore market can directly influence production decisions, thereby regulating the output of the steel industry. The study also reveals a clear price transmission chain mechanism: from the international iron ore market to the domestic iron ore market, and then to domestic steel industry output. This research not only uncovers the dynamic relationship between iron ore price fluctuations and steel industry output but also provides a new perspective for understanding and responding to iron ore price volatility. Against the backdrop of global economic integration, these findings hold significant implications for policymakers and industry practitioners. By strengthening domestic iron ore resource exploration and development, promoting technological upgrades, optimizing industrial structures, and establishing flexible supply chain management systems, China can effectively enhance the overall competitiveness of its iron ore industry, safeguard national resource security, and promote stable economic growth.