Abstract: With the increasing occurrence of global natural disasters and the rapid pace of clean energy transition, competitions among world major powers and non-state armed organizations for Africa’s strategic mineral resources have been intensified. The security risks arising from natural disasters and armed conflicts, e.g. kidnapping, hostage-taking, terrorist attacks, and violent assaults, have become significant factors affecting the investment and operational security of overseas critical mineral enterprises. By collecting panel data on cobalt resource extraction, natural disasters, and armed conflicts in the African Copper-Cobalt Belt from 2002 to 2022, this paper examines the spatial correlation effects among cobalt resource extraction, natural disasters, and armed conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi using the spatial Durbin model and geographic information systems. The results show that cobalt resource extraction has a significant suppressive effect on armed conflicts, while increasing natural disasters, declining economic growth rates, and rising unemployment rate significantly exacerbate the occurrence of armed conflicts. Furthermore, there are significant correlation effects of natural disasters and armed conflicts between countries in the African Copper-Cobalt Belt. Armed conflicts induced by natural disasters exhibit multi-scale transmission effects both within and between countries, which further increase uncertainty in mineral extraction along border regions and the vulnerability of corporate security systems. It is recommended that Chinese mining enterprises investing in the critical mineral resources of the African Copper-Cobalt Belt should comprehensively consider the upper-level factors that induce armed conflict, e.g. political, economic, social, and environmental aspects as well as the underlying social risks stemming from armed conflicts, e.g. kidnapping and hostage-taking. Strengthening intelligence gathering, risk warning, and targeted measures can mitigate the impacts of natural disasters, armed conflicts, as well as their inducing security risks.