中国钢铁工业演化和铁矿石供需展望

    China’s iron and steel industry evolution and iron ore supply and demand outlook

    • 摘要: 在世界百年未有之大变局下,各国对铁矿石等战略性矿产资源愈加重视。中国钢铁工业在建设和改革过程中逐步形成了以长流程为主、冶炼装备大型化的技术特征,以及沿海沿江的市场指向型工业布局,铁矿石成为中国钢铁工业最重要的原料之一。在新的历史背景下,综合考虑经济增长动能和结构、城镇化和工业化、人口及产业政策等因素,中国钢铁的生产与需求已进入峰值平台期,将进入“减量发展、存量竞争”的高质量发展时代。结合人均粗钢消费“S”形规律和基于下游行业需求等方法,预测2030年和2035年中国粗钢产量分别约为8.98亿t和8.25亿t,铁矿石需求量(TFe:62%)将下降至约9.96亿t和8.14亿t。同时,由于国产矿产能提升,进口铁矿石总量和比例将有所下降。在行业发展趋势下,建议一是在减量发展背景下,中国钢铁工业引导钢铁企业优化产品结构和产能“走出去”;二是钢铁企业需推动技术革新,顺应供需变化,促进供需平衡,调整原料结构;三是完善铁矿石的探产供储销统筹和衔接体系,确保钢铁及铁矿石产业链供应链安全。

       

      Abstract: Under the world’s major changes unseen in a century, countries are paying more attention to iron ore and other strategic mineral resources. In the process of construction and reform, China’s iron and steel industry has gradually formed a long process-oriented, large-scale smelting equipment, and market-oriented industrial layout along the coast and rivers. Iron ore becomes one of the most important raw materials for the iron and steel industry. In the new historical background, taking into account the economic growth momentum and structure, urbanization and industrialization, population and industrial policy and other factors, it is generally judged that China’s iron and steel production and demand has entered the peak platform period, and it will enter the era of high-quality development of “development of reduction and competition of stock”. Based on per capita crude steel consumption “S-shaped” law and downstream industry demand, it is forecasted to be 898 million tons and 825 million tons crude steel in 2030 and 2035, respectively. Further forecast China’s iron ore demand, it is expected that the demand for iron ore (TFe: 62%) will be reduced to 996 million tons and 814 million tons. While the total volume and proportion of imported iron ore will decline due to the rise in domestic mine capacity. Under the development trend of the industry, the first suggestion is that in the context of reduction development, China’s iron and steel industry needs to guide steel companies to optimize product structure and production capacity to “go global”. Secondly, steel companies need to promote technological innovation, adapt to changes in supply and demand, promote balance between supply and demand, and adjust the raw material structure. Thirdly, improve the coordination and connection system of iron ore exploration, production, supply, storage and sales to ensure the safety of the steel and iron ore industry chain and supply chain.

       

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