试论经济周期与矿业周期

    On economic cycle and mining cycle

    • 摘要: 周期是经济发展时间和空间演变的重要特征。矿业作为经济运行的基础性产业,不可避免地受到经济周期的影响,并形成自身的结构性周期。从经济周期的一般规律出发,讨论矿业周期的一般规律和特征,具有重要理论意义和实践意义。本文梳理指出经济周期演化受产业周期和产业结构、金融周期和金融调控的影响,不同经济体的经济周期存在协同效应和差异性。矿业周期是矿业市场在供需、价格、投资等方面表现出的周期性波动,受宏观经济周期、产能周期、库存周期、行业周期和金融周期等不同经济周期的影响,提出矿业周期存在“经济驱动、产能主导、库存调节、行业干涉和金融扰动”五大基本特征,指出经济周期对矿业周期的影响是规模性和结构性的,矿业周期依附于经济周期,但是会产生内部矿种结构性差异。基于不同矿种的结构性特征将矿业周期划分为能源矿产周期、大宗固体矿产周期、贵金属矿产周期和战略性新兴矿产周期,并讨论其周期性特征,发现四类矿产之间和相同类别内不同矿种之间受经济总量增长和结构变化的影响有所差异,受不同类别周期的影响程度也具有差异性。经济周期对矿业周期影响具有矿种结构差异性,宜分门别类,从五大特征出发评估分矿种行业周期,根据矿业周期调整政策和策略,降低市场风险,推进矿业可持续发展。

       

      Abstract: Cycles are an important feature of economic development in terms of time and space. Mining, as a fundamental industry in economic operation, cannot avoid being influenced by economic cycles and forms its own structural cycle. Starting from the general laws of economic cycles, discussing the general laws and features of mining cycles has important theoretical and practical significance. This paper sorts out and points out that economic cycle evolution is influenced by industrial cycle and industrial structure, financial cycle and financial regulation. Different economic entities have synergistic effects and differences in economic cycles. Mining cycles show cyclical fluctuations in mining market supply and demand, prices, and investment, and are influenced by different economic cycles such as macroeconomic cycle, capacity cycle, inventory cycle, industry cycle, and financial cycle. It is proposed that mining cycles have five basic characteristics of “economic driving, capacity dominance, inventory regulation, industry interference, and financial disturbance”, and that economic cycles have a scaled and structural impact on mining cycles. Mining cycles are dependent on economic cycles, but will produce internal mineral structural differences. Finally, based on the structural features of different mineral species, mining cycles are divided into energy mineral cycle, bulk solid mineral cycle, precious metal mineral cycle, and strategic emerging mineral cycle, and their cyclical features are discussed. It is found that the four types of minerals and different mineral species within the same category are affected by economic growth and structural changes to different degrees, and the degree of influence from different cycle categories also has differences. The impact of economic cycles on mining cycles has mineral species structural differences, and it is advisable to classify them and evaluate the mineral species cycle from the five characteristics, based on which policy and strategy adjustments can be made to reduce market risks and promote sustainable development of the mining industry.

       

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