全球铜资源供给与消费格局演变及中国铜消费影响因素研究

    Research on the evolution of supply and consumption patterns of copper resources around the world and the influencing factors of copper consumption in China

    • 摘要: 铜资源作为电动汽车、风力涡轮机和其他替代能源计划的关键组成部分,在推动能源结构转型和实现碳中和目标的过程中发挥着至关重要的作用。当前,全球铜资源市场供需关系、竞争格局与消费结构进入深度调整期,贸易保护主义加剧中国铜资源产业链断链风险。准确研判铜资源供给与消费变化对中国经济的影响,探究铜资源消费影响因素对铜产业高质量发展、终端应用减排及新兴产业发展至关重要。以全球与中国铜资源为研究对象,运用核密度估计法和STIRPAT模型分别对全球铜资源供给与消费格局演变,以及中国铜消费的影响因素进行研究。研究结果表明,2000—2023年,全球主要国家和地区铜资源的供给和消费逐年增加且存在明显的两极分化,且分化程度逐年增大。中国铜消费量受到经济增长、工业化进程、城镇化、资源消费强度、技术进步和价格等因素的影响,但不同时间段影响因素不同,1953—1978年中国铜消费增加的主要贡献因子是资源消费强度、工业化进程和经济增长;1979—1992年驱动中国铜消费增加的主要因素为资源消费强度、经济增长和城镇化;经济增长、城镇化和技术进步是1993—2023年中国铜消费增加的最主要的驱动因素。建议增强全球资源整合能力,提升铜资源保障能力;优化产业结构,降低铜资源消费强度;强化技术创新引领,加快绿色转型,实现铜产业高质量发展。

       

      Abstract: As a key component of electric vehicles, wind turbines and other alternative energy programmers, copper resources play a critical role in promoting the transformation of the energy structure and achieving carbon neutrality. At present, the supply and demand relationship, competition pattern and consumption structure of the global copper resources market have entered a period of deep adjustment, and trade protectionism has exacerbated the risk of China’s copper resources industry chain breakage. It is crucial to accurately study the impact of changes in supply and consumption of copper resources on China’s economy, and explore the factors influencing the consumption of copper resources on the high-quality development of the copper industry, the reduction of emissions from end-use applications, and the development of emerging industries. Taking global and China’s copper resources as the research object, the kernel density estimation method and STIRPAT model are used to study the evolution of global copper resources supply and consumption patterns and the influencing factors of China’s copper consumption. The results show that the supply and consumption of copper resources in major countries and regions around the world increase year by year and there is obvious polarization from 2000 to 2023, and the degree of differentiation increases year by year. China’s copper consumption is influenced by economic growth, industrialization, urbanization, resource consumption intensity, technological progress and price, etc., but the influencing factors are different in different time periods. The main contributing factors to the increase in China’s copper consumption from 1953 to 1978 are resource consumption intensity, industrialization and economic growth; the main factors driving the increase in China’s copper consumption from 1979 to 1992 are resource consumption intensity, economic growth and urbanization; economic growth, urbanization and technological progress are the main driving factors for China’s copper consumption increase from 1993 to 2023. It is suggested to enhance the ability of global resource integration to improve copper resource security; optimize the industrial structure and reduce the intensity of copper resource consumption; strengthen the technological innovation and accelerate the green transformation to realize the high-quality development of the copper industry.

       

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