金属-电力部门耦合关系及其对电力部门碳排放的影响研究

    Metal-electricity sector coupling nexus and its impact on the carbon emission of electricity sector

    • 摘要: 在“碳中和”背景下,金属资源利用与电力系统脱碳存在着密切的相互依赖关系。本文基于投入产出表,构建单层及多层复杂网络模型,创新性地采用节点间及节点与网络层间的沟通性指标,从部门视角系统地识别了金属-电力部门的耦合关系,并进一步通过计量回归模型分析了其对电力部门碳排放的影响。研究结果显示:①2007—2020年,金属-电力部门耦合关系的变化表现出非对称性特征:电力部门对金属部门的依赖程度显著上升,而金属部门对电力部门的依赖程度在近年则有所下降。②金属-电力部门耦合关系需要其他部门的支撑。在电力部门对金属部门的依赖关系中,除传统电力机械和器材行业提供的物质支持外,近年来愈加需要服务部门提供资本、技术和信息支撑,以满足低碳转型的多元化需求。③金属-电力部门耦合关系在减少碳排放方面发挥了重要的作用。电力部门对金属部门的依赖,以及金属部门对电力部门的依赖对电力部门碳排放均具有显著的负向影响。④在清洁电力发展规模较小、发电总量较高、传统能源投入较大、经济发展水平较低的地区,金属部门对电力部门支撑的增加对电力部门的碳排放具有显著的抑制效果。⑤战略性金属部门与风电光伏产业的互动关系主导着未来金属-电力部门耦合关系的变化,战略性金属部门→风电光伏产业链的协调扩张是实现电力部门碳排放持续减少的重要路径。基于上述分析,提出如下建议:加强金属部门与电力部门经济互动数据的精细化监测,为政策制定者提供决策依据;弥合战略性金属部门→风电光伏产业链内部协作“断点”,深化外部服务部门与产业链的深度融合;确立战略性金属→风电光伏产业链的重点支持地区,构建促进区域协同与资源共享的跨省合作平台。

       

      Abstract: In the context of “carbon neutrality”, the interdependence between the utilization of metal resources and the decarbonization of the electricity sector is increasingly pivotal. This paper constructs single-layer and multilayer complex network models using input-output tables and applies inter- and intra-layer communicability metrics to systematically capture the metal-electricity sector coupling nexus from the sectors perspective. The econometric regression model further reveals the implications of the nexus for carbon emissions in the electricity sector. The research results show that the changes of metal-electricity sector coupling nexus exhibit asymmetry from 2007 to 2020, with the electricity sector’s dependence on metal sector increasing substantially, while the metal sector’s dependence on electricity has declined in recent years. The metal-electricity sector coupling nexus is supported by other industries. In addition to the material support provided by the traditional electrical machinery and equipment industry, the electricity sector’s reliance on the metal sector also depends on capital, technology, and information services in recent years to meet the multifaceted demands of a low-carbon transition. The metal-electricity sector coupling nexus serves as a crucial mechanism for carbon emissions reduction, with both the electricity sector’s dependence on metal sector and the metal sector’s dependence on electricity sector showing significant negative impacts on carbon emissions. In regions with limited clean power capacity, high electricity production, heavy reliance on traditional energy, and lower economic development levels, enhanced support from the metal sector significantly reduces carbon emissions within the electricity sector. The interaction between the strategic metal sector and the wind-photovoltaic industry drives future changes in the metal-electricity sector coupling nexus. The coordinated expansion of the strategic metals → wind-photovoltaic industry chain is a vital pathway for the sustained reduction of carbon emissions in the electricity sector. Based on the above analysis, the following suggestions are proposed: to strengthen the detailed monitoring of economic interactions between the metal and electricity sectors to provide policymakers with informed decision-making support; to bridge collaboration gaps within the strategic metals → wind-photovoltaic industry chain and to enhance the integration of external service sectors; to identify key regions for supporting the strategic metals → wind-photovoltaic industry chain and to establish cross-provincial cooperation platforms to promote regional collaboration and resource sharing are essential steps forward.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回