Abstract: Recognized as the “lifeblood of the national economy”, petroleum is a critical strategic resource that plays a vital role in the economic security of nations. In an international context marked by escalating geopolitical tensions and volatile petroleum prices, China’s significant reliance on external petroleum sources poses challenges. The imperative to mitigate risks associated with petroleum market uncertainties and potential supply disruptions has never been greater. This study leverages the Markov Decision Process to develop a model for China’s strategic petroleum reserves, tailored to the nation’s specific circumstances, with the aim of providing a decision-making framework for energy security. Incorporating variables such as petroleum price volatility, the likelihood and duration of supply interruptions, the model utilizes dynamic programming to formulate a reward function and constraints. It examines the influence of various uncertainties on reserve strategies through scenario analysis. The findings demonstrate that the elasticity of petroleum demand, the probability of supply disruptions, and the cost coefficients of reserves significantly impact the size and strategy of reserves. Notably, the risk of extended supply interruptions results in a substantial increase in the optimal reserve size, with the release strategy varying depending on the duration of the disruption. The model’s findings offer a reflection of the appropriate scale and adjustment strategies for China’s strategic petroleum reserves under diverse scenarios, acknowledging the complexity of real-world situations that demand a multifaceted consideration. The results serve as a crucial reference for policymakers, and sensitivity analysis deepens the understanding of the mechanisms influencing reserve decisions. This is instrumental in the development of more scientifically sound strategies for strategic petroleum reserves. Furthermore, the study probes the potential implications of strategic petroleum reserve policies on the mining capital market, suggesting that refined reserve strategies can enhance the efficient utilization of resources and fortify China’s energy security and economic stability within the global petroleum market. This research not only furnishes policymakers with vital decision support for strategic petroleum reserve policies but also provides a benchmark for the management of other strategic mineral resources.