中国铼资源供应安全分析

    Analysis of rhenium resource supply security in China

    • 摘要: 本文结合全球铼储量分布及贸易形势,分析了中国铼资源供应的安全情况。铼作为一种关键的稀有金属,广泛应用于航空航天领域,尤其是在制造超级合金方面,具有不可替代性。近年来,随着中国航空航天工业的快速发展,对铼的需求日益增长,尤其是在高温高性能涡轮叶片的制造中,铼的使用量显著增加。本文首先介绍了铼的特性及其在航空航天领域的重要性,指出铼的提取和冶炼过程复杂,且主要依赖于伴生于铜和钼矿床的铼资源。全球铼储量主要集中在智利、美国、俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦等国,其中,智利的铼储量占全球总储量的54.1%。中国的铼资源相对匮乏,约为200 t,主要分布在陕西、黑龙江、河南和吉林等省份,且品位较低。全球铼生产集中度较高。随着铼需求的增长,铼的供应安全问题愈发突出。本文采用部门消费预测法,对中国未来至2043年的铼矿产需求进行了初步预测。结果表明,随着中国航空航天工业的持续发展,铼的需求预计将显著增加。到2043年,中国对铼的需求将达到53.3 t,而预计铼的国内产量仅为22.3 t,存在较大的供应缺口。本文强调了加强对铼资源的勘探、开发和储备的重要性,建议国家应加大对材料科学和航空发动机的研究投入,提升铼的提取和加工技术;加强与铼资源主要生产国之间的合作,确保铼资源的稳定供应,以支持中国高端制造业的发展。

       

      Abstract: This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the security of China’s rhenium resource supply by examining global rhenium reserves and trade situation. Rhenium, a critical rare metal, plays an indispensable role in the aerospace industry, particularly in the production of superalloys. With the rapid development of China’s aerospace sector, the demand for rhenium has significantly increased, especially in the manufacture of high-temperature, high-performance turbine blades. This paper begins by discussing the properties of rhenium and its importance in aerospace, highlighting the complex extraction and refining processes, which primarily depend on rhenium resources associated with copper and molybdenum deposits. Global rhenium reserves are predominantly concentrated in Chile, the United States, Russia, and Kazakhstan, with Chile alone accounting for 54.1% of the world’s total reserves. In contrast, China’s rhenium resources are relatively scarce, approximately 200 tons, distributed mainly across Shaanxi, Heilongjiang, Henan, and Jilin provinces, and are of lower grade. Rhenium production is highly concentrated globally, with a few leading producers dominating the market. As demand grows, particularly within the aerospace sector, the security of rhenium supply becomes an increasingly critical issue. Using a sectoral consumption forecasting method, this paper provides a preliminary forecast of China’s rhenium demand up to 2043. The results indicate that, driven by the continuous growth of its aerospace industry, China’s demand for rhenium is expected to reach 53.3 tons by 2043, while domestic production is projected to be only 22.3 tons, leading to a significant supply gap. Additionally, the trade flow of rhenium is unique in that much of it is embedded in aerospace engines and other materials, often not directly reflected in trade statistics. Finally, the paper emphasizes the importance of enhancing exploration, development, and reserves of rhenium resources. It recommends that the nation increase investment in material science and aeromotor research, improve rhenium extraction and processing technologies and strengthen collaboration with major rhenium-producing countries to ensure a stable supply, supporting the advancement of China’s high-end manufacturing industries.

       

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