Abstract:
This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the security of China’s rhenium resource supply by examining global rhenium reserves and trade situation. Rhenium, a critical rare metal, plays an indispensable role in the aerospace industry, particularly in the production of superalloys. With the rapid development of China’s aerospace sector, the demand for rhenium has significantly increased, especially in the manufacture of high-temperature, high-performance turbine blades. This paper begins by discussing the properties of rhenium and its importance in aerospace, highlighting the complex extraction and refining processes, which primarily depend on rhenium resources associated with copper and molybdenum deposits. Global rhenium reserves are predominantly concentrated in Chile, the United States, Russia, and Kazakhstan, with Chile alone accounting for 54.1% of the world’s total reserves. In contrast, China’s rhenium resources are relatively scarce, approximately 200 tons, distributed mainly across Shaanxi, Heilongjiang, Henan, and Jilin provinces, and are of lower grade. Rhenium production is highly concentrated globally, with a few leading producers dominating the market. As demand grows, particularly within the aerospace sector, the security of rhenium supply becomes an increasingly critical issue. Using a sectoral consumption forecasting method, this paper provides a preliminary forecast of China’s rhenium demand up to 2043. The results indicate that, driven by the continuous growth of its aerospace industry, China’s demand for rhenium is expected to reach 53.3 tons by 2043, while domestic production is projected to be only 22.3 tons, leading to a significant supply gap. Additionally, the trade flow of rhenium is unique in that much of it is embedded in aerospace engines and other materials, often not directly reflected in trade statistics. Finally, the paper emphasizes the importance of enhancing exploration, development, and reserves of rhenium resources. It recommends that the nation increase investment in material science and aeromotor research, improve rhenium extraction and processing technologies and strengthen collaboration with major rhenium-producing countries to ensure a stable supply, supporting the advancement of China’s high-end manufacturing industries.