Abstract: Tellurium stands as a key raw material in strategic emerging industries encompassing semiconductor thermal cooling, solar photovoltaics, and infrared detection, with its secure supply being of paramount importance. Analyzing the future supply and demand balance of tellurium resources is essential for the scientific planning of capacity development and the establishment of national strategic reserves on China’s supply side. Therefore, to forecast the future demand for tellurium resources in China, the ARIMA model is applied. Then, based on the co-occurrence characteristics of copper and tellurium, the future demand for refined copper in China is predicted using the “S” curve model, from which the potential supply trends for tellurium resources are derived. The results indicate that the supply potential of tellurium in copper anode slime is projected to decline over time due to the saturation of copper resource demand and the increasing ratio of recycled refined copper. The tellurium supply potential is expected to decrease from 539.8 tons in 2023 to 393.4 tons in 2035. Currently, China’s demand for tellurium resources remains relatively weak, and a surplus of tellurium is expected to persist for some time. However, with the rapid development of CdTe thin-film solar cells, the excess supply of tellurium in China will gradually decrease. By 2035, a supply gap of 81.8 tons is anticipated. Considering the current market situation of oversupply and the potential for future shortages, this paper proposes the following recommendations: ① It fosters the development of the tellurium strategic emerging industry and promotes the efficient utilization and consumption of existing resource inventories. ② It establishes a strategic reserve management system for tellurium resources to enhance supply flexibility. ③ It expands avenues for acquiring tellurium resources in order to strengthen the stability and reliability of supply. These measures offer valuable scientific insights to support the sustainable and healthy development of China’s tellurium industry chain.