全球氦气供需形势分析与展望

    Analysis and outlook of the global helium supply and demand situation

    • 摘要: 氦气有着诸多独特性质,在高新技术产业、医疗、航天航空及军事工业等众多领域有着不可替代的应用,是重要的战略性资源。然而我国氦气长期依赖进口,随着国际关系变化,如贸易摩擦、地缘政治冲突等,供应安全形势不容乐观。基于大量的实地调研和文献查阅,分析了全球及我国氦气供需形势,并对未来进行了展望。全球氦气资源主要集中在美国、卡塔尔、俄罗斯、阿尔及利亚等国,全球氦气生产格局产生了变化:由早期的美国“一家独大”逐渐演变成当前的美国、卡塔尔“两分天下”,未来或将形成美国、卡塔尔、俄罗斯“三足鼎立”的格局。未来三年,全球经济或将延续当前的疲弱态势,氦气需求增速将放缓,而随着前期建设的提氦工厂陆续投产,全球氦气市场将出现供应宽松形势。国内氦气供需方面,我国氦气资源潜力大,氦气生产自2020年开始蓬勃发展,产量快速上升,未来三年我国氦气产能增长可观。我国氦气进口格局也产生了变化,来自美国、澳大利亚的氦气进口逐渐减少,来自卡塔尔、俄罗斯的氦气逐渐增加。未来从俄罗斯的进口还将进一步增加。随着国内供给增加、进口来源的稳定性增强,我国氦气安全供应保障能力将持续提升。

       

      Abstract: Helium has numerous unique properties and has irreplaceable applications in many fields such as high-tech industries, medical care, aerospace, and the defense industry. It is an important strategic resource. However, China has long been dependent on imports for helium. With the changes in international relations, such as trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts, the security situation of its supply is not optimistic. Based on many field investigations and literature reviews, this paper analyzes the global and China’s helium supply and demand situations and makes prospects for the future. Global helium resources are mainly concentrated in countries such as the United States, Qatar, Russia, and Algeria. There has been an adjustment in the global helium production pattern: from the early situation where the United States dominated alone, it has gradually formed the current duopoly of the United States and Qatar, and in the future, a tripartite confrontation among the United States, Qatar, and Russia may emerge. In the next three years, the global economy will continue its current weak trend, and the growth rate of helium demand will slow down. Meanwhile, with the helium extraction plants constructed in the early stage being put into production one after another, the global helium market will experience a situation of loose supply. In terms of domestic helium supply and demand, China has great potential for helium resources. Helium production has been booming since 2020, and the output has increased rapidly. In the next three years, China’s newly added helium production capacity will be considerable. There has also been a structural adjustment in China’s helium import pattern. The imports of helium from the United States and Australia are gradually decreasing, while those from Qatar and Russia are gradually increasing. In the future, the imports of helium from Russia will further increase. With the increase in domestic supply and the enhanced stability of import sources, China’s ability to ensure the security supply of helium will continue to improve.

       

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