全球视角下的中国铝资源供需形势分析

    Analysis of aluminum resource supply and demand situation in China from a global perspective

    • 摘要: 快速工业化拉动中国原铝需求高速增长。中国的氧化铝产量、原铝产量及原铝消费量均占据了全球市场的大部分份额。与此同时,国内铝土矿供应不足、品质降低、进口矿石供应不稳定等问题日益凸显。在此背景下,中国铝资源供需形势的研究价值重大。2023年,全球铝土矿资源储量丰富,铝土矿储采比(静态)为82 a,足够保障21世纪全球经济增长对铝资源的需要。中国铝土矿储量占全球2.3%,生产了全球23.0%的铝土矿,储采比(静态)仅7 a。全球三大铝土矿生产国为澳大利亚(9800万t,24.5%)、几内亚(9700万t,24.3%)和中国(9300万t,23.0%)。全球再生铝产量3952万t,中国产量为950万t左右,产业规模居全球首位,占全球总量的24%。铝土矿国际贸易相对集中,几内亚(57%)、澳大利亚(24%)和印度尼西亚(12%)三大出口国占据了主导地位。中国是全球最大的铝土矿进口国,进口量占全球总量的83%。中国全年进口氧化铝183万t,同比减少8.2%,进口原铝154万t、废铝175万t,分别同比增长130.7%、15.6%。中国铝资源对外依存度达57.5%。采用部门消费预测法对中国铝资源需求进行了预测,并分析了中国铝资源供应情况,结果表明:①国内矿产地质条件匮乏,现行氧化铝生产工艺消耗大量高品位矿石,导致矿山品位下降,难以支撑高强度开采和未来铝资源需求;②海外资源布局集中度过高,存在安全供给风险。针对以上供需形势提出了如下建议:①加大国内铝土矿资源勘探力度和煤下铝资源利用;②加快中国铝土矿资源全球化布局;③鼓励拓展新资源,规范境外投资秩序,分散我国铝土矿进口过于集中的风险,着力提高中国在全球铝土矿开发中的主导权和影响力;④加快推进氧化铝供给侧结构性改革,禁止以消耗国产铝土矿资源为主的新建氧化铝项目,加大对有限铝土矿资源的保护力度;⑤发展再生铝产业,补充铝资源供给,提高资源利用效率。

       

      Abstract: The rapid industrialization has driven the rapid growth of demand for primary aluminum in China. China’s alumina production, primary aluminum production, primary aluminum consumption all occupies the majority of the global market share. At the same time, problems such as insufficient domestic bauxite supply, decreased quality, and unstable supply of imported ores are becoming increasingly. In this context, the research value of the supply and demand situation of aluminum resources in China is significant. In 2023, the global reserves of bauxite resources will be abundant, with a static bauxite reserve production ratio of 82 years, which is sufficient to meet the demand for aluminum resources for global economic growth in the 21st century. China’s bauxite reserves account for 2.3% of the world’s total, producing 23.0% of the world’s bauxite, with a static reserve production ratio of 7 years. The three major bauxite producing countries in the world are Australia (98 million tons, 24.5%), Guinea (97 million tons, 24.3%), and China (93 million tons, 23.0%). The global production of recycled aluminum is 39.52 million tons, while China’s production is around 9.5 million tons, ranking first in the world in terms of industrial scale and accounting for 24% of the global total. The international trade of bauxite is relatively concentrated, with Guinea(57%), Australia(24%), and Indonesia(12%) being the dominant exporting countries. China is the world’s largest importer of bauxite, accounting for 83% of the global total. China imported 1.83 million tons of alumina throughout the year, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%. It imports 1.54 million tons of primary aluminum and 1.75 million tons of scrap aluminum, an increase of 130.7% and 15.6%, respectively. China’s dependence on foreign aluminum resources has reached 57.5%. The departmental consumption forecasting method is used to predict the demand for aluminum resources in China, and the supply situation of aluminum resources in China is analyzed. The results show that: ① The geological conditions of mineral resources in China are scarce, and the current alumina production process consumes a large amount of high-grade ore, resulting in a decrease in the grade of mines in China, making it difficult to support high-intensity mining and future demand for aluminum resources. ② The concentration of overseas resource layout is too high, which poses a security supply risk. The following suggestions are proposed: ① It increases the exploration of domestic bauxite resources and the utilization of aluminum resources under coal. ② It accelerates the globalization of China’s bauxite resources. ③ It encourages the expansion of new resources, standardizes the order of overseas investment, diversifies the risk of excessive concentration of bauxite imports in China, and focuses on enhancing China’s leadership and influence in global bauxite development. ④ It accelerates the supply side structural reform of alumina, prohibits new alumina projects that mainly consume domestic bauxite resources, and increases the protection of China’s limited bauxite resources. ⑤ It develops the recycled aluminum industry, supplements the supply of aluminum resources, and improves resource utilization efficiency.

       

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