Abstract:
Cobalt is a critical raw material for new energy vehicle batteries and plays a vital role in the low-carbon energy transition. Understanding the whole life cycle evolution of cobalt resources within China’s socio-economic system is essential for optimizing resource management and ensuring supply security. This paper employs dynamic material flow analysis from a trade association perspective to map the material metabolism of China’s cobalt resources between 1988 and 2022, revealing flow and stock dynamics at each life cycle stage. The findings are as follows: ① China’s cobalt trade exhibits a high dependency on imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) upstream, diversified downstream exports, and steadily growing trade volumes; ② the cobalt industry chain shows low resource utilization efficiency, with losses of 193 000 tons during midstream and upstream production, approximately 37% of domestic end products consumption; ③ China has become the world’s largest production center for refined cobalt and end products, with expanding production scales. Electric vehicle batteries are gradually supplanting traditional applications, driving domestic cobalt consumption. Currently, China’s reliance on imported cobalt raw materials stands at 98%, ensuring a stable cobalt supply poses significant challenges to achieve the “dual carbon” goals. To address this, this paper recommends increasing domestic reserves and production, diversifying overseas supply channels, and enhancing the comprehensive utilization efficiency across the cobalt life cycle. Additionally, it advocates for the establishment of a closed-loop management system for cobalt-containing waste products to strengthen the supply security of China’s cobalt resources. Furthermore, accelerating the development of low-cobalt or cobalt-free lithium-ion batteries is critical to mitigating the risks associated with cobalt supply disruptions in the clean energy transition.