全球锂矿分布特征、供需格局和展望

    Distribution characteristics, supply-demand structure and outlook of global lithium resources

    • 摘要: 锂自200多年前被发现以来,以其优良的物理化学性能广泛应用于电池、陶瓷、玻璃等领域,被誉为“21世纪的能源金属”,已成为全球各国关注的战略性矿产。为厘清全球锂供需情况,运用描述性统计分析方法,从锂的用途、资源分布特征、供应、消费、需求预测和替代等方面对已有研究进行了总结,得出以下结论。锂的用途从陶瓷等传统领域向电池等新兴领域转变,87%应用于电池领域;全球分布八大锂成矿带,已发现资源分布极不均衡,主要集中在南美洲“锂三角”(智利、阿根廷、玻利维亚)和澳大利亚;锂矿供应经历了由北美洲的硬岩型向南美洲的卤水型再向澳大利亚的硬岩型和南美洲的卤水型并重的演变,四成以上产量集中于全球前三大头部企业;锂终端消费市场主要在中国、欧洲和美国,东南亚和非洲为后起之秀;以中国为代表的全球未来锂需求保持快速增长,短期内供应相对充足,但长期将供不应求且缺口越来越大;随着科技的发展,钠离子电池、钒电池等对锂电池具有一定的替代,能够在一定程度上缓解锂供不应求的局面。总之,从历史的维度分析全球锂供需格局对于全面认识锂的重要性具有现实意义,可为锂产业链的战略研究提供有效参考。

       

      Abstract: Since its discovery over 200 years ago, lithium has been widely used in fields such as batteries, ceramics, and glass due to its excellent physical and chemical properties. It is known as the “energy metal of the 21st century” and has become a strategic mineral of global concern. In order to clarify the global supply-demand situation of lithium, the paper utilizes descriptive statistical analysis to provide a comprehensive summary of existing research on the utilization, distribution characteristics of resources, supply, consumption, demand forecasting, and substitution of lithium, and draws the following conclusions. The utilization of lithium has shifted from traditional fields such as ceramics to emerging fields such as batteries, with 87% being used for batteries. There are eight major lithium mineralization belts distributed globally, and the distribution of resources mainly concentrated in the “Lithium Triangle” of South America (Chile, Argentina, Bolivia) and Australia. The supply of lithium has undergone an evolution from the hard rock type in North America to the brine type in South America, and then to the hard rock type in Australia and the brine type in South America, more than 40% of the production is concentrated in the top three global enterprises. The lithium terminal consumer market is mainly in China, Europe, and the United States, with Southeast Asia and Africa emerging as new players; the global demand for lithium, represented by China, will continue to grow rapidly in future. In the short term, the supply will be sufficient; but in the long run, demand will exceed supply and the gap between supply and demand is widening. With the development of technology, sodium-ion batteries and vanadium batteries have certain substitutes for lithium batteries, which can partially alleviate the situation of lithium supply shortage. In summary, analyzing the global lithium future of supply and demand from a historical perspective has practical significance for a comprehensive understanding of the importance of lithium, and can provide effective references for strategic research in the lithium industry chain.

       

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