氢能产业的资源约束:基于PEM电解槽与氢燃料电池汽车的铂金需求分析

    Resource constraints in the hydrogen energy industry: platinum demand analysis based on PEM electrolyzers and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

    • 摘要: 氢能已成为全球能源转型的重要战略选择,包括中国在内的30多个国家已经发布了氢能发展路线图。作为质子交换膜电解槽和燃料电池的关键催化剂,铂金的需求随着氢能产业的发展而上升。考虑到中国作为全球最大的铂金消费国,铂金资源储量仅占全球储量的0.12%,供需矛盾风险不容忽视。因此,有必要对能源转型倒逼下氢能产业发展的铂金需求进行测算。本研究采用动态物质流分析方法分析了中国氢能产业带动的铂金流动特征,基于碳中和情景下氢能产业的发展规模和未来三种不同情景下的技术发展情况,估算了氢能产业的铂金存量和报废量。研究结果表明:2018—2022年进入氢能产业的铂金总量为1 634.19 kg,进入使用阶段的铂金总量为1 676.31 kg,其中,仍在使用的铂金总量为1 563.00 kg,进入废物管理阶段的铂金总量为86.11 kg,铂金的总损失为77.11 kg;2050年碳中和情景下氢能产业驱动的铂金存量在基线、保守和积极的技术情景下分别为1 614.40 t、802.19 t和357.60 t,铂金报废量分别为58.16 t、24.41 t和9.92 t,预计未来中国氢能产业铂金回收可以缓解铂金进口的压力。为了更好地管理和利用铂资源,对中国氢能产业及铂金资源的未来发展提出相关建议,强调除了创新技术水平,开发多类型替代催化剂之外,提高铂金的回收率也是缓解铂金供需矛盾的有效途径。

       

      Abstract: Hydrogen energy has become an important strategic choice for the global energy transition, and more than 30 countries, including China, have issued roadmaps for its development. As a key catalyst for proton exchange membrane electrolyzers and fuel cells, the demand for platinum rises with the development of the hydrogen energy industry. Considering that China, as the world’s largest platinum consumer, has only 0.12% of the global reserves of platinum resources, the risk of contradiction between supply and demand cannot be ignored. Therefore, it is necessary to measure the platinum demand for the development of the hydrogen energy industry under the push of energy transition. This study analyzes the characteristics of platinum flows driven by China’s hydrogen energy industry by using the dynamic material flow analysis method. Platinum stocks and scrap volume for the hydrogen energy industry are then estimated based on the scale of the hydrogen energy industry under the carbon neutral scenario and the technological development of the future under three different scenarios. The study finds that the total amount of platinum entering the hydrogen energy industry from 2018 to 2022 is 1 634.19 kg, the platinum entering the use stage is 1 676.31 kg, of which the platinum still in use is 1 563.00 kg, the platinum entering the waste management stage is 86.11 kg, and the total loss of platinum is 77.11 kg. The platinum stocks driven by the hydrogen energy industry under the carbon-neutral scenario in 2050 is 1 614.40 t, 802.19 t and 357.60 t under the baseline, conservative and aggressive technology scenarios, respectively, and platinum scrapping is 58.16 t, 24.41 t and 9.92 t. It is expected that platinum recycling for China’s hydrogen energy industry can alleviate platinum import pressures in the future. To better manage and utilize platinum resources, finally, relevant recommendations are put forward for the future development of China’s hydrogen energy industry and platinum resources, emphasizing that in addition to innovative technological levels and development of multiple types of alternative catalysts, improving the recovery rate of platinum is also an effective way to alleviate the supply-demand contradiction of platinum.

       

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