Abstract:
The traditional analysis methods of water demand for the energy of resource-based cities have rarely studied the relationship between different types of energy production, processing activities, and water resource demand. There has been little distinction made between water intake and water consumption for different energy types, nor has there been consideration of the substantial water resource needs of the energy production and processing industry itself. This paper employs a bottom-up research approach and a multi-scenario method, integrating the LEAP model and industrial water accounting methods to explore the trends in energy production output and the corresponding energy production water consumption from 2016 to 2050 under various energy policy scenarios in Tangshan City. The results of the study provide an effective scientific reference for alleviating and even resolving the predicament of water resource scarcity in Tangshan City. The findings are as follows: ① reference scenario, by 2030, water extraction and consumption are projected to increase to 810 million cubic meters and 174 million cubic meters, respectively, representing rises of 52.25% and 33.33% compared to 2015. ② Industrial structure optimization scenario: this scenario anticipates a reduction in water extraction by 229 million cubic meters and water consumption by 51 million cubic meters by 2030 compared to the baseline scenario. ③ Energy structure optimization scenario: adjustments in the energy structure are expected to result in water extraction and consumption of 693 million cubic meters and 186 million cubic meters by 2030, indicating increases of 112 million cubic meters and 64 million cubic meters compared to the ISO scenario. ④ Focusing on the development of renewable energy and enhanced energy efficiency, this scenario significantly reduces energy-related water consumption compared to other scenarios. Water extraction peaks nearly ten years earlier than in the TOS scenario, with reductions of 117 million cubic meters in water extraction and 4 million cubic meters in consumption by 2030 relative to the TOS scenario. In the ISO scenario, by adjusting the industrial structure and reducing the proportion of high-energy-consuming industries, a more energy-efficient and productive energy production mode can be achieved. In the LCD scenario, by continuously upgrading the technology of terminal equipment, the energy utilization efficiency has been significantly improved, thereby reducing energy consumption. The optimization of the industrial structure and the renewal of technological equipment have an important impact on energy production and use. Meanwhile, promoting renewable energy and improving energy use efficiency are helpful for reducing water consumption, enhancing the water resource utilization efficiency of the energy industry and further facilitating the sustainable development of energy production. With the improvement of Tangshan City’s economy and social living standards, the demand for electricity and heat has increased simultaneously, resulting in a significant increase in the demand for water resources. Through the prediction of different scenario models, targeted optimization of the industrial structure and energy structure has been carried out. The use of high-energy-consuming energy has been gradually reduced and the application of renewable energy has been expanded, effectively reducing the water intake and consumption for energy. Meanwhile, during the development of renewable energy, close attention should be paid to its water consumption and water-saving technologies should be actively promoted to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in the entire energy industry.